Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Kherradji A. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Lille		Lorient

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.1	6	Watch
	1.63	4	5.25
	1.52	4.15	6.3	Watch
	1.56	4.25	6.5
	1.49	4.36	6.62	Watch
	1.53	3.9	5.75
	1.58	4.23	6.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.6)	4.14 ↑ (4.09)	6.09 ↑ (5.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
61.4%

Draw
23%

Lorient
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59%

23.1%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

23.6%

17.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
74.1%	19%	6.9%

Lille - Lorient Predictions

Users Predictions: 58 users predict this event. Lille will win (votes: 43 - 74.1%). Lorient will win (votes: 4 - 6.9%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lille: 62.8% – 85.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 - Lille (2.44) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH -0.5 - Lorient (5.39) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 13 - 72.2%). Lorient (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 3. Ngoy N. 23. Mandi A. 15. Perraud R. 32. Bouaddi A. 6. Bentaleb N. 21. Andre B. (C) 10. Haraldsson H. 28. Perrin G. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.	38. Mvogo Y. (G) 77. Katseris P. 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. (C) 25. Faye A. 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 62. Avom A. 8. Cadiou N. 29. Karim D. 15. Tosin A.
Substitutes
4. Alexsandro 16. Bodart A. (G) 27. Correia F. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 18. Mbemba Ch. 12. Meunier T. 17. Mukau N. 24. Verdonk C.	33. Akakpo I. 9. Bamba M. 34. Bley M. 12. Dieng B. 21. Kamara B. (G) 11. Le Bris T. 35. Semedo D. 28. Soumano S. 44. Yongwa D.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Pantaloni O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Perrin G. 🟨,
32', Ozer B. 🟨,
32', Mandi A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
56', Meite B. 🟨,
65', 1 - 0, Fernandez-Pardo M. ⚽, Bentaleb N. (A),
66', Makengo J. ↓, Le Bris T. ↑,
66', Tosin A. ↓, Dieng B. ↑,
73', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
74', Perrin G. ↓, Correia F. ↑,
74', Bouaddi A. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
74', Kouassi A. ↓, Yongwa D. ↑,
74', Katseris P. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
80', Karim D. ↓, Semedo D. ↑,
88', Fernandez-Pardo M. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
88', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
90+1', Bentaleb N. 🟨,
90+3', 1 - 1, Avom A. ⚽, Meite B. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.

Lille is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Lorient has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lille may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lille is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Caillard M. (Injury) Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lorient: Abergel L. (Ankle Injury) Igor Silva (Injury) Pagis P. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Lorient: Fadiga B. (Injury) Leroy B. (Injury) Sanusi T. (Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 13 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 44:18. (average 2.2:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 24:3. (average 2.7:0.3).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.84% Lorient: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5:6	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Lille - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.96%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Lille - Nantes	1:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	0:2 ET ✺
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Angers - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLT
- FC Lorient
Coupe De France
04.03.26	Lorient - Nice	0:1 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Lorient - Angers	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Brest - Lorient	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTTWL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
30.08.25	Lorient - Lille	1:7
14.01.24	Lille - Lorient	3:0
27.08.23	Lorient - Lille	4:1
02.04.23	Lille - Lorient	3:1
02.10.22	Lorient - Lille	2:1
19.01.22	Lille - Lorient	3:1
10.09.21	Lorient - Lille	2:1

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