Match Info

Coupe de France - Quarter-finals

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Stade du Moustoir (Lorient)

Referee: Dechepy B. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Lorient		Nice

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.4	3.5	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3
	2.18	3.45	3.35	Watch
	2.18	3.53	3.51
	11.84	1.40	3.75	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.3
	2.08	3.45	3.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.5 ↑ (2.16)	3.13 ↓ (3.37)	3.42 ↑ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorient
31.8%

Draw
35.6%

Nice
32.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

43.5%

27.8%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

27.4%

28.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorient has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lorient's form might have worsened.

Nice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorient than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lorient, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nice than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Lorient - Nice Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lorient (1.32) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Lorient (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorient will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.47% – 97.53%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorient will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Lorient (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Kamara B. (G) 5. Meite B. 3. Talbi M. 44. Yongwa D. 11. Le Bris T. 62. Avom A. 6. Abergel L. 43. Kouassi A. 17. Makengo J. 10. Pagis P. 12. Dieng B.	80. Diouf Y. (G) 33. Mendy A. 4. Dante 37. Peprah K. 92. Clauss J. 24. Vanhoutte C. 8. Sanson M. 26. Bard M. 32. Boudache K. 44. Diallo Z. 22. Ndombele T.
Substitutes
32. Adjei N. 9. Bamba M. 8. Cadiou N. 25. Faye A. 29. Karim D. 77. Katseris P. 38. Mvogo Y. (G) 28. Soumano S. 15. Tosin A.	99. Abdul Samed S. 28. Bah J. 23. Bernardeau G. 25. Cho M. 39. Coulibaly D. 31. Dupe M. (G) 47. Gouveia T. 90. Kevin 20. Louchet T.
Coaches
Pantaloni O.	Puel C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Pagis P. 🟥,
45', Pantaloni O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Diallo Z. ↓, Cho M. ↑,
46', Peprah K. ↓, Louchet T. ↑,
56', Ndombele T. ↓, Kevin ↑,
57', Abergel L. ↓, Cadiou N. ↑,
70', Kevin 🟨,
70', Kouassi A. 🟨,
71', Makengo J. ↓, Karim D. ↑,
72', Yongwa D. ↓, Faye A. ↑,
80', Dieng B. ↓, Soumano S. ↑,
80', Le Bris T. ↓, Katseris P. ↑,
82', Dante ↓, Bah J. ↑,
82', Boudache K. ↓, Bernardeau G. ↑,
85', Meite B. 🟨,
90+2', Kamara B. 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, Bernardeau G. (Penalty Awarded),
1, Cadiou N. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Clauss J. (Penalty Awarded),
2, Talbi M. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Louchet T. (Penalty Awarded),
3, Kouassi A. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Sanson M. (Penalty Awarded),
4, Soumano S. (Penalty Awarded),
5, Kevin (Penalty Awarded),
5, Avom A. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Mendy A. (Penalty Awarded),
6, Katseris P. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Vanhoutte C. (Penalty Awarded),
7, Faye A. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Cho M. (Penalty Awarded),
8, Meite B. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Lorient might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Lorient: Faye A. (Foot Injury) Toure I. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nice: Abdelmonem M. (Knee Injury) Bombito M. (Leg Injury) Diop S. (Yellow Cards) Jansson I. (Injury) Ndayishimiye Y. (Knee Injury) Pereira E. (Injury) Wahi E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Lorient: Fadiga B. (Injury) Kouassi A. (Injury) Sanusi T. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lorient won 5 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:27. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lorient won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.2:0.7).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorient - the odds 2.16 are the expected chance of winning is 43.53%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lorient
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Lorient - Auxerre	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Lorient - Angers	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Brest - Lorient	2:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTWLW
- OGC Nice
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Paris FC - Nice	1:0 ✺
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Lyon - Nice	2:0 ✺
08.02.26	Nice - Monaco	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Nice - Montpellier	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Nice - Lorient	3:3
30.11.25	Lorient - Nice	3:1
19.04.24	Nice - Lorient	3:0
20.08.23	Lorient - Nice	1:1
19.03.23	Nice - Lorient	1:1
30.10.22	Lorient - Nice	1:2
17.04.22	Nice - Lorient	2:1

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