Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 24

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Pierre-Mauroy (Villeneuve d'Ascq)

Referee: Leonard T. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 1, Cablenet Sports 1
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1+
Japan	DAZN Japan
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Portugal	Sport TV3
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Lille		Nantes

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.33	7	Watch
	1.47	4.5	6.5
	1.47	4.45	6.9	Watch
	1.49	4.5	7.5
	1.55	4.24	5.85	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.52	4.57	7.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↑ (1.44)	4.37 ↓ (4.43)	6.77 ↓ (6.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lille
64.1%

Draw
21.8%

Nantes
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

21.2%

13.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

18%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Nantes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lille than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lille that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nantes than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	5.6%	11.1%

Lille - Nantes Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Lille (1.13) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Nantes (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lille will win (29 of 35 users predict this - 82.86%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.37% – 95.35%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lille will win (7 of 7 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Lille (votes: 8 - 88.9%). Nantes (votes: 1 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ozer B. (G) 22. Santos T. 18. Mbemba Ch. 3. Ngoy N. 24. Verdonk C. 17. Mukau N. 21. Andre B. (C) 27. Correia F. 10. Haraldsson H. 28. Perrin G. 7. Fernandez-Pardo M.	1. Lopes A. (C) 6. Awaziem C. 2. Ali Youssef 3. Cozza N. 18. Centonze F. 8. Lepenant J. 21. Kaba M. 66. Leroux L. 27. Machado D. 37. Ganago I. 19. El Arabi Y.
Substitutes
6. Bentaleb N. 16. Bodart A. (G) 32. Bouaddi A. 35. Diaoune S. 20. Edjouma N. 9. Giroud O. 23. Mandi A. 12. Meunier T. 15. Perraud R.	10. Abline M. 20. Cabella R. 30. Carlgren P. (G) 13. Coquelin F. 24. Guilbert F. 31. Mostafa Mohamed 28. Sissoko I. 17. Tabibou D. 78. Tati T.
Coaches
Genesio B.	Kantari A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Kaba M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', Leroux L. ↓, Coquelin F. ↑,
63', El Arabi Y. ↓, Abline M. ↑,
63', Machado D. ↓, Tabibou D. ↑,
63', Correia F. ↓, Edjouma N. ↑,
63', Santos T. ↓, Meunier T. ↑,
74', Haraldsson H. ↓, Diaoune S. ↑,
74', Perrin G. ↓, Giroud O. ↑,
74', Ganago I. ↓, Cabella R. ↑,
76', Andre B. 🟨,
76', Giroud O. 🟨,
81', Kaba M. ↓, Sissoko I. ↑,
81', Mukau N. ↓, Bentaleb N. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 0, Ngoy N. ⚽, Meunier T. (A),
90+5', Ngoy N. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: ) and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lille won 3.

Lille has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Nantes is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lille may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lille is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Lille: Igamane H. (Knee Injury) Mbappe E. (Thigh Injury) Sahraoui O. (Injury) Toure O. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Nantes: Amian K. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Lille: Alexsandro (Calf Injury) Caillard M. (Injury) Meunier T. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lille won 14 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 33:12. (average 1.7:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Lille won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:5. (average 1.9:0.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lille: 4.84%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8:4	4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- OSC Lille
UEFA Europa League
26.02.26	Crvena Zvezda Belgrade - Lille	0:2 ET ✺
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Angers - Lille	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Lille - Crvena Zvezda Belgrade	0:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.02.26	Lille - Brest	1:1 ✺
06.02.26	Metz - Lille	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLTT
- FC Nantes
French Ligue 1
22.02.26	Nantes - Le Havre	2:0 ✺
13.02.26	Monaco - Nantes	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Nantes - Lyon	0:1 ✺
31.01.26	Lorient - Nantes	2:1 ✺
25.01.26	Nantes - Nice	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
19.10.25	Nantes - Lille	0:2
15.03.25	Nantes - Lille	1:0
04.01.25	Lille - Nantes	1:1
12.05.24	Nantes - Lille	1:2
20.08.23	Lille - Nantes	2:0
27.05.23	Lille - Nantes	2:1
12.08.22	Nantes - Lille	1:1

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