Match Info

Date: 26 February 2022, Saturday


	Lincoln City		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.8	5.5
	1.61	3.75	5.5
	1.58	4	6
	1.61	3.75	5.2
	1.67	3.93	5.42
	1.57	3.8	5.8
	1.67	4.05	5.65	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.75)	3.87 ↑ (3.5)	5.58 ↑ (4.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
58.5%

Draw
24.5%

Gillingham
17%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.5%

26.7%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

17.5%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Gillingham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-23.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lincoln City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Gillingham could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lincoln City - Gillingham Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Lincoln has the most likely position - 17 (15.46%), has project points - 53, has currently - 35, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gillingham has the most likely position - 23 (32.2%), has project points - 38, has currently - 27, has a good chance of relegated (90%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has not chance of win league.

This event has small quality 12, small importance 24, small match rating 18. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 1.

Lincoln is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Gillingham is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Gillingham could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Lincoln is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Lincoln won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Lincoln won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League One
22.02.22	Bolton Wanderers - Lincoln City	3:1 ✺
15.02.22	Lincoln City - Doncaster Rovers	0:1 ✺
12.02.22	Lincoln City - Wycombe Wanderers	1:1 ✺
08.02.22	Lincoln City - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
05.02.22	Milton Keynes Dons - Lincoln City	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLTWL
- Gillingham FC
English League One
22.02.22	Gillingham - AFC Wimbledon	0:0 ✺
19.02.22	Gillingham - Plymouth Argyle	0:2 ✺
12.02.22	Morecambe - Gillingham	1:1 ✺
08.02.22	Gillingham - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
05.02.22	Ipswich Town - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TLTWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
07.08.21	Gillingham - Lincoln City	1:1
16.03.21	Lincoln City - Gillingham	0:3
05.02.21	Gillingham - Lincoln City	0:3
22.02.20	Lincoln City - Gillingham	0:0
16.11.19	Gillingham - Lincoln City	1:0

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