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Current Win Probability
Liverpool 50.8%
Draw 23.7%
Napoli 25.5%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
60.2%
21.6%
18.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
61.9%
22.2%
17.7%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Liverpool has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.4%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Liverpool's form might have worsened.
Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Napoli's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool than the current prediction. (+11.1%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Liverpool, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-7.8%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Napoli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
51.6%
17.5%
31%
Liverpool - Napoli Predictions
Users Predictions:
126 users predict this event. Liverpool will win (votes: 65 - 51.6%). Napoli will win (votes: 39 - 31%). It will Tie (votes: 22 - 17.5%). Confidence interval (95%) for Liverpool: 42.9% – 60.3%.The data is statistically significant.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1
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Preview
Napoli is Qualified for Champions League (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
Liverpool has currently - 12, has a very small chance of 1st (5%), has a good chance of 2nd (95%), has not chance of 3rd, was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (54%), has a chance of semis (30%), has a small chance of final (15%), has a small chance of win league (7%).
Napoli has currently - 15, has a good chance of 1st (95%), has a very small chance of 2nd (5%), has not chance of 3rd, was already of round of 16, has a good chance of qtrs (60%), has a chance of semis (28%), has a small chance of final (12%), has a very small chance of win league (5%).
This event has big quality85, very small importance5, match rating45. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Liverpool won 1.
Recent matches Liverpool is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
Napoli is in super shape now and in the last match got series of victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).
Napoli could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.
Recently Napoli have a series of home games.
Liverpool will have a mini benefit in this match.
There will not play in Liverpool: Arthur
(Muscle Injury)
Diaz L.
(Knee Injury)
Diogo Jota
(Calf Injury)
Keita N.
(Lacking Match Fitness)
Matip J.
(Calf Injury)
There will not play in Napoli: Rrahmani A.
(Muscle Injury)
Sirigu S.
(Muscle Injury)
Last 7 head-to-head matches Liverpool won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 8-11.
Including matches at home between the teams Liverpool won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-1.
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