Match Info

Serie A - Round 21

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 3, DStv Now, SuperSport Football
Albania	Tring Sport 1
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic, STARZPLAY Arabic
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN
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Bulgaria	Max Sport 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
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Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 4, Arena Sport 8, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
France	DAZN France
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Haiti	Tele Haiti
Hong-kong	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Match 4
Indonesia	Vidio
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Italy	214 DAZN Zona, DAZN 1, DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4, ART Sport 1
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 3
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2, Ziggo Sport
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Poland	CANAL+ Poland, Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
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Saudi-arabia	STC TV
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, Arena Sport 3
Slovakia	Sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
South-africa	SuperSport Football
South-america	ESPN 2 South, ESPN 5 South
South-korea	SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime 2
Spain	DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	True ID, True Premier Football 3
Tunisia	Diwan Sport
Turkey	S Sport 2, S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	DAZN
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, DAZN Espanol, DAZN USA, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox, Fubo Sports Network, Paramount+
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, ON Football, ON Plus, TV 360, VTVcab
World	Starzplay Sports app


	Napoli		Sassuolo

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	8.5	Watch
	1.44	4.25	8.3	Watch
	1.51	4.42	7.1	Watch
	1.4	4	8
	1.47	4.41	8.13
	1.48	4	8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.45 ↑ (1.44)	4.24 ↓ (4.25)	8.01 ↓ (8.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
65.6%

Draw
22.5%

Sassuolo
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

22.4%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

21.2%

10.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Sassuolo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sassuolo than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.6%	18.4%	2%

Napoli - Sassuolo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Napoli (1.77) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +1.25 - Sassuolo (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Napoli will win (38 of 48 users predict this - 79.17%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.68% – 90.66%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Napoli will win (12 of 14 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 18 Selected Experts predict this event. Napoli (votes: 14 - 77.8%). Sassuolo (votes: 2 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 2 - 11.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Milinkovic-Savic V. (G) 31. Beukema S. 13. Rrahmani A. 5. Juan Jesus 22. Di Lorenzo G. (C) 68. Lobotka S. 8. McTominay S. 37. Spinazzola L. 26. Vergara A. 19. Hojlund R. 20. Elmas E.	49. Muric A. (G) 6. Walukiewicz S. 21. Idzes J. 80. Muharemovic T. 3. Doig J. 35. Lipani L. 18. Matic N. (C) 40. Vranckx A. 20. Fadera A. 99. Pinamonti A. 45. Lauriente A.
Substitutes
69. Ambrosino G. 4. Buongiorno A. 14. Contini N. (G) 25. Ferrante M. (G) 3. Gutierrez M. 70. Lang N. 27. Lucca L. 35. Marianucci L. 30. Mazzocchi P. 17. Olivera M. 21. Politano M.	9. Cheddira W. 25. Coulibaly W. 33. Frangella C. 44. Iannoni E. 24. Moro L. 26. Odenthal C. 17. Paz Y. 77. Pierini N. 19. Romagna F. 12. Satalino G. (G) 14. Skjellerup L. 13. Turati S. (G) 16. Zacchi G. (G)
Coaches
Stellini C.	Grosso F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Lobotka S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', Vranckx A. 🟨,
54', Vranckx A. ↓, Iannoni E. ↑,
56', Elmas E. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
57', Beukema S. ↓, Lang N. ↑,
62', Vergara A. ↓, Mazzocchi P. ↑,
64', Grosso F. 🟨,
67', Rrahmani A. ↓, Buongiorno A. ↑,
81', Doig J. ↓, Coulibaly W. ↑,
81', Fadera A. ↓, Skjellerup L. ↑,
84', Iannoni E. 🟨,
89', Pinamonti A. ↓, Cheddira W. ↑,
89', Lipani L. ↓, Moro L. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 5.

Napoli is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sassuolo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Napoli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Napoli is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Anguissa F. (Thigh Injury) De Bruyne K. (Thigh Injury) Gilmour B. (Groin Injury) Lukaku R. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Sassuolo: Berardi D. (Muscle Injury) Boloca D. (Knee Injury) Cande F. (Injury) Pieragnolo E. (Knee Injury) Romagna F. (Calf Injury) Thorstvedt K. (Shoulder Injury) Volpato C. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Napoli: Meret A. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Napoli won 12 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 47:19. (average 2.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Napoli won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 25:6. (average 2.5:0.6).

Outrights of Italian Serie A for now

Napoli: 3.78% Sassuolo: 0.25%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7:6	1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9:9	0	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
14.01.26	Napoli - Parma	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	Inter Milan - Napoli	2:2 ✺
07.01.26	Napoli - Verona	2:2 ✺
04.01.26	Lazio - Napoli	0:2 ✺
28.12.25	Cremonese - Napoli	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 TTTWW
- US Sassuolo
Italian Serie A
10.01.26	Roma - Sassuolo	2:0 ✺
06.01.26	Sassuolo - Juventus	0:3 ✺
03.01.26	Sassuolo - Parma	1:1 ✺
28.12.25	Bologna - Sassuolo	1:1 ✺
21.12.25	Sassuolo - Torino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie A
23.08.25	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2
28.02.24	Sassuolo - Napoli	1:6
27.08.23	Napoli - Sassuolo	2:0
17.02.23	Sassuolo - Napoli	0:2
29.10.22	Napoli - Sassuolo	4:0
30.04.22	Napoli - Sassuolo	6:1
01.12.21	Sassuolo - Napoli	2:2

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