Match Info

Date: 12 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona (Naples)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	TV3 Sport, Viaplay
Finland	CMore, CMore Sport
France	beIN Sports
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hungary	Sport 1
Portugal	Eleven Sports
Romania	Prima Sport 1
Slovenia	SportKlub
United-kingdom	BT Sport


	Napoli		Ajax

	1	X	2
	1.6	4.5	4.75
	1.58	4.6	4.8
	1.6	4.7	5.4
	1.57	4.6	5
	1.64	4.47	5.07
	1.55	4.4	5.25
	1.62	4.95	5.45
	1.6	4.8	5.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↓ (1.74)	4.63 ↑ (4.17)	5.12 ↑ (4.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 0.3%, offered by

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Network on TV: TUDN

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Current Win Probability

Napoli
60.4%

Draw
20.8%

Ajax
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.9%

22.8%

22.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

22%

21.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Napoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Napoli's performance.

Ajax has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Napoli than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajax than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

Napoli - Ajax Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

Napoli has currently - 9, has a good chance of 1st (75%), has a chance of 2nd (23%), has a very small chance of 3rd (2%), has a very good chance of round of 16 (98%), has a good chance of qtrs (51%), has a chance of semis (23%), has a small chance of final (9%), has a very small chance of win league (4%).

Ajax has currently - 3, has a very small chance of 1st (2%), has a chance of 2nd (16%), has a good chance of 3rd (72%), has a chance of round of 16 (19%), has a small chance of qtrs (9%), has a very small chance of semis (5%), has a very small chance of final (2%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has big quality 82, importance 33, match rating 57. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Napoli in the last match got a series victories and it is an a fantastic form (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Ajax is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Ajax could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Napoli have a series of guest games.

In this match Napoli is a favorite.

There will not play in Napoli: Osimhen V. (Thigh Injury) Rrahmani A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Ajax: Ihattaren M. (Lacking Match Fitness) Kaplan A. (Knee Injury) Rensch D. (Injury) Tadic D. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Ajax: Sanchez J. (Knee Injury)

Our prediction for today's Napoli to win the game is with odds 1.57.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Napoli won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SSC Napoli
Italian Serie A
09.10.22	Cremonese - Napoli	1:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.10.22	Ajax - Napoli	1:6 ✺
Italian Serie A
01.10.22	Napoli - Torino	3:1 ✺
18.09.22	Milan - Napoli	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
14.09.22	Glasgow Rangers - Napoli	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 WWWWW
- Ajax Amsterdam
Dutch Eredivisie
08.10.22	Volendam - Ajax	2:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
04.10.22	Ajax - Napoli	1:6 ✺
Dutch Eredivisie
01.10.22	Ajax - Go Ahead Eagles	1:1 ✺
18.09.22	AZ Alkmaar - Ajax	2:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
13.09.22	Liverpool - Ajax	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLTLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
04.10.22	Ajax - Napoli	1:6

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