Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 4 April 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Centenario (Montevideo)

Referee: Rojas A. (Col)


	Liverpool Montevideo		Independiente del Valle

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.5	3.2	2.1
	3.5	3.25	2.15	Watch
	3.61	3.27	2.19
	3.61	3.27	2.19
	3.4	3.25	2	Watch
	3.48	3.34	2.15	Watch
	3.35	3.2	2.13
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.49 ↑ (2.92)	3.25 ↑ (3.22)	2.13 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Liverpool Montevideo
26.9%

Draw
28.9%

Independiente del Valle
44.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.8%

28.8%

39.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

27.9%

40.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Liverpool Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.9%)

Independiente del Valle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liverpool Montevideo than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente del Valle than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Liverpool Montevideo - Independiente del Valle Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Ind del Valle will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Lentinelly S. (C) 18. Cayetano A. 6. Samudio M. 14. Rosso J. 23. Martinez E. 24. Amaro K. 31. Wasilewsky L. 7. Lemos L. 8. Barrios M. 11. Ocampo M. 19. Rodriguez L.	1. Ramirez M. (G) 13. Fernandez M. 5. Schunke R. 14. Carabajal M. 4. Landazuri A. 7. Mercado P. 10. Sornoza J. 18. Zabala C. 80. Ortiz J. 16. Paez K. 11. Hoyos M.
Substitutes
32. Bregante F. 3. de los Santos M. 26. Ferrer G. 17. Franco N. 22. Garcia Cardozo D. G. 10. Gonzalez A. 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 27. Lopez Y. 9. Machado R. 15. Rodriguez D. 2. Rodriguez I. 20. Vergara H.	50. Arroyo K. 58. Ayovi M. 17. Bolanos A. 15. Caicedo B. 31. Ibarra R. 30. Ibarra R. 9. Lopez R. 51. Medina Y. 6. Pombo J. 56. Ruiz E. 22. Villar G. (G) 2. Zarate L.
Coaches
Alfaro E.	Gandolfi J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', 0 - 1, Ortiz J. ⚽, Sornoza J. (A),
11', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
30', Mercado P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Mercado P. ↓, Bolanos A. ↑,
53', Zabala C. 🟨,
59', Ocampo M. ↓, Machado R. ↑,
59', Wasilewsky L. ↓, Garcia Cardozo D. G. ↑,
63', Sornoza J. ↓, Medina Y. ↑,
67', Samudio M. ↓, Franco N. ↑,
78', Hoyos M. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
78', Paez K. ↓, Arroyo K. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Rodriguez L. ⚽,
81', Martinez E. 🟥,
89', Barrios M. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
90+2', Zabala C. ↓, Ibarra R. ↑,

Preview

Liverpool is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Independiente del Valle is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Liverpool could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Liverpool have a series of home games.

Independiente del Valle will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Liverpool won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Liverpool won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Liverpool Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
30.03.24	Liverpool Montevideo - River Plate Montevideo	1:1 ✺
15.03.24	Boston River - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
10.03.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Danubio	1:2 ✺
03.03.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado	1:2 ✺
25.02.24	Liverpool Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TTLLT
- Independiente del Valle
Ecuadorian Liga Pro
31.03.24	Emelec - Independiente del Valle	0:0 ✺
24.03.24	Independiente del Valle - SD Aucas	1:1 ✺
21.03.24	Técnico Universitario - Independiente del Valle	1:1 ✺
15.03.24	Independiente del Valle - Cumbayá	3:0 ✺
09.03.24	Independiente del Valle - Barcelona Guayaquil	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
24.05.23	Liverpool Montevideo - Independiente del Valle	1:0
18.04.23	Independiente del Valle - Liverpool Montevideo	2:0

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