Match Info

Date: 1 April 2024, Monday


	Llantwit Major		Abergavenny Town

	1	X	2
	1.16	6.5	12
	1.13	6.99	12.49
	1.14	6.99	12.49
	1.13	6.85	15
	1.15	6.4	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↓ (1.31)	6.75 ↑ (5.25)	12.8 ↑ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llantwit Major
79.5%

Draw
13.5%

Abergavenny Town
7.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

17.3%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.9%

16.2%

12.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llantwit Major has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Llantwit Major's performance.

Abergavenny Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Abergavenny Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Llantwit Major that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Abergavenny Town than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Abergavenny Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Emanuel I. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, Williams C. ⚽,
71', 3 - 0, Williams C. ⚽,
82', Campbell A. 🟥,
82', 4 - 0, Williams C. (Pen),

Preview

This time only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 13 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

Abergavenny Town is Relegated to

Recent matches Llantwit Major is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Abergavenny Town has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Llantwit Major is certain favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Llantwit Major won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Llantwit Major won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
29.03.24	Baglan Dragons - Llantwit Major	0:0 ✺
16.03.24	Llantwit Major - Cwmbran Celtic	1:1 ✺
08.03.24	Llanelli - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
02.03.24	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	3:1 ✺
23.02.24	Taffs Well AFC - Llantwit Major	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TTLWT
- Abergavenny Town
Welsh Cymru South
29.03.24	Afan Lido - Abergavenny Town	6:0 ✺
16.03.24	Baglan Dragons - Abergavenny Town	2:0 ✺
08.03.24	Abergavenny Town - Ammanford	0:1 ✺
23.02.24	Abergavenny Town - Cambrian United	0:2 ✺
17.02.24	Cambrian United - Abergavenny Town	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
08.08.23	Abergavenny Town - Llantwit Major	0:1
21.03.23	Abergavenny Town - Llantwit Major	0:2
24.09.22	Llantwit Major - Abergavenny Town	2:1

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