Match Info

Cymru South - Round 24

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday


	Llantwit Major		Trefelin

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.7	1.58
	4.93	4.02	1.58
	5.03	3.75	1.66	Watch
	4.8	3.6	1.57
	5.32	3.85	1.53
	5	3.6	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.97 ↓ (5.07)	3.75 ↓ (3.95)	1.57 ↓ (1.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llantwit Major
18.2%

Draw
24.1%

Trefelin
57.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

23.5%

58.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.9%

23%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Trefelin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trefelin than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Llantwit Major - Trefelin Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 0 - 1, Bowen L. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 9 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Cymru Premier).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Llantwit Major won 1.

Llantwit Major has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Trefelin is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Llantwit Major may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Trefelin is seen as the favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Llantwit Major won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 2.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Llantwit Major won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
15	Llantwit Major	8	2	1	5	7:20	-13	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
24.02.26	Ynyshir Albions - Llantwit Major	2:3 ✺
20.02.26	Newport City - Llantwit Major	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Llantwit Major - Cwmbran Celtic	3:1 ✺
30.01.26	Carmarthen Town - Llantwit Major	1:1 ✺
03.01.26	Llantwit Major - Baglan Dragons	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWTT
- Trefelin BGC
Welsh Cymru South
20.02.26	Trefelin - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Trefelin - Baglan Dragons	3:0 ✺
13.02.26	Carmarthen Town - Trefelin	0:2 ✺
23.01.26	Ammanford - Trefelin	0:4 ✺
16.01.26	Caerau Ely - Trefelin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3
25.01.25	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	0:0
16.08.24	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:1
02.03.24	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	3:1
09.09.23	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	3:3
04.03.23	Trefelin - Llantwit Major	0:1
30.07.22	Llantwit Major - Trefelin	1:2

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