Match Info

US Open Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 7 May 2025, Wednesday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)


	Louisville City		Minnesota United

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.6	3.5	Watch
	2.8	3.3	2.15	Watch
	2.17	3.45	3.05
	2.04	3.4	3.76
	2.26	3.45	3	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.25
	2.06	3.6	3.27	Watch
	2.17	3.45	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (3.18)	3.43 ↑ (3.31)	3 ↑ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
41.3%

Draw
27.4%

Minnesota United
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.5%

27.4%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27%

28.9%

46.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Louisville City's performance.

Minnesota United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Minnesota United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-14.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Louisville City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Minnesota United than the current prediction. (+15.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Minnesota United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Louisville City - Minnesota United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Las D. (G) 13. Dia A. 5. Ordonez A. 32. Adams K. (C) 15. Perez E. 17. Davila T. 27. Davila E. 2. McFadden A. 16. Perez A. 9. Goodrum P. 7. Serrano R.	96. Speel W. (G) 2. Padelford D. 27. Taylor D. 23. Duggan M. 22. Jung Ho-yeon 19. Shashoua S. 34. Calov C. 24. Gressel J. 33. Chandler K. 7. Jeong S. 98. Randell A.
Substitutes
70. Cano I. 12. Faundez D. (G) 24. Jones J. 31. Lambert K. 8. Moguel C. 3. Morris J. 25. Wilson J.	35. Fischer B. 39. Hille L. 36. Kiingi K. 90. Mesanvi L. 37. Niang B. 95. Nour M. 1. Smir A. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Adams K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Davila E. ↓, Lambert K. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Randell A. ⚽, Jeong S. (A),
66', Dia A. ↓, Morris J. ↑,
66', Perez A. ↓, Wilson J. ↑,
67', Randell A. ↓, Mesanvi L. ↑,
67', Gressel J. ↓, Fischer B. ↑,
73', Morris J. 🟨,
76', Morris J. ↓, Cano I. ↑,
79', Shashoua S. ↓, Niang B. ↑,
84', Lambert K. 🟨,
85', Perez E. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
90+2', Jeong S. ↓, Hille L. ↑,
90+4', Fischer B. 🟨,
90+5', McFadden A. 🟨,

Preview

Louisville City has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Minnesota has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
01.05.25	Louisville City - Lexington	2:0 ✺
USL Cup
26.04.25	Louisville City - Richmond Kickers	4:1 ✺
USL Championship
19.04.25	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
US Open Cup
15.04.25	Louisville City - Loudoun United	2:1 ✺
USL Championship
05.04.25	Sacramento Republic - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWWT
- Minnesota United
MLS
03.05.25	Austin FC - Minnesota United	0:3 ✺
27.04.25	Minnesota United - Vancouver Whitecaps	1:3 ✺
19.04.25	Minnesota United - FC Dallas	0:0 ✺
12.04.25	Toronto FC - Minnesota United	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	New York City - Minnesota United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WLTTW

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