Match Info

USA: USL Championship

Date: 11 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville, KY)

Referee: Tattersall E. (Usa)


	Louisville City		Orange County SC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.5	3.9	5
	1.52	4.2	5.5
	1.68	3.93	4.84
	1.54	4.2	5.68
	1.54	3.97	5.62	Watch
	1.51	4	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↓ (1.93)	4.03 ↑ (3.48)	5.34 ↑ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
59.7%

Draw
22.9%

Orange County SC
17.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

26.6%

25.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

26%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Louisville City's performance.

Orange County SC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Orange County SC might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Louisville City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Orange County SC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Louisville City - Orange County SC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Las D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 32. Adams K. (C) 3. Morris J. 23. Wynder E. 17. Davila T. 5. Ordonez A. 7. Serrano R. 25. Wilson J. 14. Harris W. 21. Gonzalez J.	1. Shutler C. (G) 2. Lambe O. 30. Nakkim M. (C) 33. Miles A. 23. Doghman R. 4. Djeffal S. 26. Scott K. 17. Sorto C. 10. Iloski B. 15. Chattha A. 21. Amang T.
Substitutes
27. Davila E. 13. Dia A. 12. Faundez D. (G) 20. Gleadle S. 11. McCabe N. 2. McFadden A. 16. Perez A. 80. Stamps H.	25. Ayoub R. 24. Barjolo B. 20. Ferree D. (G) 11. Jamison B. 29. Lee M. 35. Norris B. 9. Zubak E.
Coaches
Cruz D.	Karlsen M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Harris W. ⚽, Gonzalez J. (A),
23', Iloski B. 🟨,
32', Morris J. 🟨,
42', Scott K. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Morris J. ↓, McFadden A. ↑,
60', Nakkim M. ↓, Jamison B. ↑,
68', 2 - 0, Serrano R. ⚽,
69', Sorto C. ↓, Zubak E. ↑,
79', Gonzalez J. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
88', 3 - 0, Wilson J. ⚽,
88', Wynder E. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
88', Wilson J. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
89', Djeffal S. ↓, Ayoub R. ↑,
89', Chattha A. ↓, Barjolo B. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Louisville City could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Louisville City is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Louisville City won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Louisville City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
US Open Cup
08.05.24	Seattle Sounders - Louisville City	3:2 penalties ✺
USL Championship
27.04.24	Louisville City - Hartford Athletic	6:0 ✺
20.04.24	Loudoun United - Louisville City	0:1 ✺
US Open Cup
16.04.24	Louisville City - Greenville Triumph	3:1 ✺
USL Championship
09.04.24	Charleston Battery - Louisville City	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWL
- Orange County SC
US Open Cup
07.05.24	Orange County SC - Loudoun United	1:2 ✺
USL Championship
27.04.24	Orange County SC - Monterey Bay	2:0 ✺
20.04.24	Orange County SC - Sacramento Republic	0:2 ✺
13.04.24	San Antonio - Orange County SC	0:0 ✺
06.04.24	Memphis 901 - Orange County SC	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
11.03.23	Orange County SC - Louisville City	1:3
18.06.22	Louisville City - Orange County SC	3:1

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