Match Info

USA: USL CHAMPIONSHIP

Date: 16 September 2023, Saturday

Location: Lynn Family Stadium (Louisville)

Referee: Bensalah N. (Usa)


	Louisville City		San Diego Loyal

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.65	4	4.5
	1.69	4.14	4.33
	1.66	3.92	4.4	Watch
	1.72	3.85	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (2.02)	3.98 ↑ (3.5)	4.31 ↑ (3.16)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Louisville City
55.2%

Draw
23.3%

San Diego Loyal
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.1%

26%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.8%

25.6%

28.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Louisville City's performance.

San Diego Loyal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and San Diego Loyal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Louisville City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Diego Loyal than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Diego Loyal could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Louisville City - San Diego Loyal Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Semmle O. (G) 15. Perez E. 19. Jimenez O. 4. Totsch S. 6. Charpie W. 8. Moguel Jr. C. 23. Wynder E. 36. Del Piccolo P. (C) 14. Harris W. 10. Ownby B. 9. Gonzalez J.	1. Koke Vegas (G) 4. Guzman C. 5. Stoneman G. 13. Riley C. 14. Perez A. 7. Bodily B. 17. Martin C. 15. Corona J. 10. Guido A. (C) 9. Conway E. 11. Moshobane T.
Substitutes
32. Adams K. 67. Damm O. 18. Faundez D. (G) 12. Gibson T. 22. Mares D. 90. Pouwels M. 7. Serrano R.	6. Adams C. 23. Chilaka M. 8. Damus R. 60. Ferree D. (G) 50. Gnaulati X. 2. Hackworth M. 20. Moon N.
Coaches
Cruz D.	MIller N.

Preview

Both teams are now playing unstable.

In this match Louisville City is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Louisville City won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7-3.

Including matches at home between the teams Louisville City won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
09.09.23	Tampa Bay Rowdies - Louisville City	2:1 ✺
02.09.23	Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Louisville City	2:3 ✺
26.08.23	Louisville City - Oakland Roots	2:1 ✺
19.08.23	Birmingham Legion - Louisville City	2:0 ✺
12.08.23	Louisville City - Rio Grande Valley	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWWLT
- San Diego Loyal
USL Championship
09.09.23	Charleston Battery - San Diego Loyal	2:0 ✺
03.09.23	San Diego Loyal - Birmingham Legion	3:0 ✺
26.08.23	Rio Grande Valley - San Diego Loyal	2:3 ✺
19.08.23	San Diego Loyal - New Mexico United	2:2 ✺
12.08.23	San Diego Loyal - Memphis 901	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWTL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
16.04.22	San Diego Loyal - Louisville City	2:5
22.05.21	Louisville City - San Diego Loyal	2:1

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