Match Info

EUROPE: Europa League - League phase - Round 4

Date: 7 November 2024, Thursday

Location: Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)

Referee: Papapetrou A. (Gre)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 3, New World Sport App
Argentina	ESPN 3
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 7
Bulgaria	BTV Action, Voyo
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN 3
China	QQ Sports
Colombia	ESPN 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 9, MAXtv To Go
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France	Canal+ Live 9
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Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 7
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, FOX Sports Premium
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Norway	Viaplay
Philippines	beIN Connect
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ViX Latin America
Spain	LaLiga TV Bar, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ 1
Sweden	Disney+
Switzerland	Blue Sport 12, Blue Sport 12, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Thailand	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 6
United-kingdom	Discovery+ UK, TNT Sports 8
Usa	Paramount+
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Ludogorets Razgrad		Athletic Bilbao

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.6	1.7
	5.25	3.5	1.73
	5.5	3.6	1.72
	5.5	3.59	1.74
	5.07	3.59	1.74	Watch
	5.5	3.6	1.7
	5.85	3.78	1.73
	5.55	3.6	1.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.43 ↑ (4.4)	3.61 ↓ (3.9)	1.72 ↑ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ludogorets Razgrad
17.7%

Draw
26.6%

Athletic Bilbao
55.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.2%

23.9%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.9%

26.8%

61.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ludogorets Razgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Athletic Bilbao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Athletic Bilbao than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Athletic Bilbao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.2%	6%	86.7%

Ludogorets Razgrad - Athletic Bilbao Predictions

Users Predictions: Athletic Bilbao will win (72 of 82 users predict this - 87.8%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.72% – 94.88%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Padt S. (C) 16. Witry A. F. 24. Verdon O. 4. Almeida D. 17. Son 82. Yordanov I. 12. Rwan Seco 23. Duarte D. 77. Erick Marcus 9. Duah K. 7. Rick	13. Agirrezabala J. (G) 2. Gorosabel A. 3. Vivian D. 4. Paredes A. 17. Berchiche Y. 16. Ruiz de Galarreta I. 24. Prados Diaz B. 9. Williams I. (C) 7. Berenguer A. 10. Williams N. 11. Djalo A.
Substitutes
39. Bonmann H. (G) 20. Camara A. 18. Chochev I. 14. Gropper D. 67. Hristov D. (G) 15. Kurtulus E. 19. Rusev G. 80. Stefanov M. 5. Terziev G.	5. Alvarez Y. 32. Boiro A. 18. de Marcos O. 20. Gomez U. 21. Herrera A. 19. Javier Marton 15. Lekue I. 14. Nunez U. 26. Padilla A. (G) 8. Sancet O. 22. Serrano N. 6. Vesga M.
Coaches
Jovicevic I.	Valverde E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Erick Marcus ⚽,
23', Berchiche Y. 🟨,
30', Rick 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
48', Vivian D. 🟨,
56', Prados Diaz B. ↓, Vesga M. ↑,
56', Gorosabel A. ↓, de Marcos O. ↑,
56', Djalo A. ↓, Serrano N. ↑,
68', Ruiz de Galarreta I. ↓, Gomez U. ↑,
72', Vesga M. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Williams I. ⚽, de Marcos O. (A),
74', Erick Marcus ↓, Rusev G. ↑,
74', 1 - 2, Serrano N. ⚽, Gomez U. (A),
77', Rusev G. 🟨,
84', Williams N. ↓, Herrera A. ↑,
85', Witry A. F. ↓, Gropper D. ↑,
85', Yordanov I. ↓, Chochev I. ↑,
90+4', Rwan Seco 🟨,
90+4', Serrano N. 🟨,

Preview

Ludogorets is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Athletic is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Athletic is a favorite.

There will not play in Ludogorets: Caio Vidal (Red Card) Nedyalkov A. (Knee Injury) Pedro Naressi (Yellow Cards) Piotrowski J. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Athletic: Guruzeta G. (Back Injury) Jauregizar M. (Back Injury) Sancet O. (Ankle Injury) Simon U. (Wrist Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ludogorets Razgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
03.11.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:0 ✺
28.10.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - CSKA 1948 Sofia	3:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.10.24	Anderlecht - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
20.10.24	Septemvri Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:2 ✺
06.10.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLWW
- Athletic Bilbao
Spanish LaLiga
03.11.24	Athletic Bilbao - Betis	1:1 ✺
28.10.24	Mallorca - Athletic Bilbao	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa League
24.10.24	Athletic Bilbao - Slavia Prague	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.24	Athletic Bilbao - Espanyol	4:1 ✺
06.10.24	Girona - Athletic Bilbao	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTWWL

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