Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 19

Date: 11 January 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Toralín (Ponferrada)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ponferradina		Sestao

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.4	4.75
	1.66	3.3	4.5
	1.66	3.1	4.3
	1.67	3.45	5.06	Watch
	1.7	3.25	5
	1.68	3.44	5.1
	1.66	3.1	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.58)	3.29 ↓ (3.5)	4.72 ↓ (4.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ponferradina
53.7%

Draw
27.2%

Sestao
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

25.5%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.4%

24.2%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ponferradina, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Ponferradina - Sestao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Prieto A. (C) 17. Carrique T. 4. Sibille K. 3. Novoa G. 18. Ramon A. 15. Bustos A. 24. Doue M. 22. Esquerdo V. 11. Mula A. 21. Cortes J. 9. Cabanzon Y.	13. Herrerin I. (G) 22. Etxeberria M. 23. Efremov A. 21. Miranda A. 12. Barandalla M. 11. Etxaniz J. 8. Garai G. 4. Relu 15. Bustillo M. 14. Garcia S. 10. Martinez Ortiz L. (C)
Substitutes
8. Abelenda B. 2. Andujar D. 25. Barredo P. (G) 6. Fernandez B. 7. Gomez E. 13. Jimenez A. (G) 23. Jorrin M. 12. Jurgens O. 5. Lancho J. 19. Lopez A. 16. Lozano M. 10. Valle B.	2. Alvarez J. 9. Aznar D. 5. Blanco C. 3. Cordero C. 18. Cordoba A. 1. Garrido J. (G) 27. Martin M. 7. Planas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', 1 - 0, Cabanzon Y. ⚽,
17', Bustos A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
63', Garai G. 🟨,
68', Bustos A. ↓, Valle B. ↑,
68', Esquerdo V. ↓, Fernandez B. ↑,
69', Relu ↓, Aznar D. ↑,
69', Etxaniz J. ↓, Planas A. ↑,
75', Mula A. ↓, Gomez E. ↑,
75', Doue M. ↓, Lozano M. ↑,
80', Martinez Ortiz L. ↓, Cordoba A. ↑,
80', Barandalla M. ↓, Cordero C. ↑,
86', Garcia S. ↓, Alvarez J. ↑,
88', 1 - 1, Aznar D. ⚽,
90+1', 🟨,
90+4', 1 - 2, Planas A. ⚽,

Preview

Watch a battle-game between leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs and 15).

Ponferradina is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Sestao is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Sestao could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Ponferradina have a series of home games.

In this match Ponferradina is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ponferradina to win the game is with odds 1.66.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Ponferradina won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Ponferradina won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Ponferradina
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.01.25	Ponferradina - Real Sociedad	0:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
20.12.24	Ponferradina - Tarazona	2:0 ✺
14.12.24	Lugo - Ponferradina	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Ponferradina - Gimnástic de Tarragona	2:0 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.24	Ponferradina - Castellón	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.3 LWWWW
- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
22.12.24	Sestao - Celta de Vigo B	2:0 ✺
15.12.24	Ourense CF - Sestao	0:0 ✺
08.12.24	Sestao - Arenteiro	2:1 ✺
30.11.24	Amorebieta - Sestao	2:0 ✺
23.11.24	Sestao - Barakaldo	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
27.01.24	Ponferradina - Sestao	1:1
03.09.23	Sestao - Ponferradina	0:1

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