Match Info

Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs - 1/32-finals

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Tullio Saleri (Lumezzane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	SKY Go Italia


	Lumezzane		Alcione

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.2	3.2	2.8
	2.38	3.25	2.72	Watch
	2.82	3.06	2.74
	2.25	3.39	2.88	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.5
	2.54	3.22	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↑ (2.2)	3.2 ↑ (3.15)	2.72 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lumezzane
37.7%

Draw
28.6%

Alcione
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.6%

29.1%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.9%

27.6%

27.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lumezzane has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Alcione has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lumezzane, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcione than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alcione, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lumezzane - Alcione Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
50. Drago G. (G) 23. Moscati M. 31. Stivanello R. 29. Gallea F. 70. Mancini S. 11. Ghillani A. 4. Paghera F. 19. Rolando M. 21. Iori M. 32. Anatriello G. 20. Caccavo L.	22. Agazzi F. (G) 25. Pirola F. 6. Ciappellano D. 5. Miculi A. 73. Scuderi G. 70. Bright K. 23. Galli G. 8. Muroni M. 10. Pitou J. 31. Marconi M. 11. Morselli F.
Substitutes
12. Battagliola L. (G) 99. Belvedere F. 6. Colangiuli V. 17. De Marino D. 2. Deratti J. 7. Ferro M. 1. Filigheddu S. (G) 10. Malotti M. 27. Napolitano G. 14. Rihai A. 8. Rocca M. 41. Scanzi M.	3. Chierichetti P. 81. Gallazzi F. 65. Giorgeschi S. 33. Invernizzi A. 16. Lanzi J. 27. Lione M. 18. Lopes E. 21. Olivieri D. 9. Plescia V. 1. Raffaelli F. (G) 17. Rebaudo R. 7. Renault G. 32. Tordini M. 30. Zamparo L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Gallea F. 🟨,
20', Muroni M. 🟨,
44', Ciappellano D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Mancini S. 🟨,
68', Ghillani A. ↓, Rocca M. ↑,
69', Rolando M. 🟨,
70', Marconi M. ↓, Zamparo L. ↑,
77', Morselli F. ↓, Plescia V. ↑,
77', Pitou J. ↓, Invernizzi A. ↑,
78', Anatriello G. ↓, Malotti M. ↑,
85', Muroni M. ↓, Tordini M. ↑,
87', Caccavo L. ↓, Ferro M. ↑,
87', Iori M. ↓, Colangiuli V. ↑,
87', Mancini S. ↓, Deratti J. ↑,

Preview

In case of a draw home team advances.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lumezzane won 1.

Lumezzane is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Alcione's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lumezzane won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:5. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Lumezzane won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Alcione Milano	8	2	5	1	12:13	-1	11
10	Lumezzane	8	3	2	3	10:11	-1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Lumezzane - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 41.62%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Alcione - the odds 3.13 are the expected chance of winning is 29.3%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
25.04.26	Lumezzane - Virtus Verona	4:1 ✺
19.04.26	Lecco - Lumezzane	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Lumezzane - Brescia	1:0 ✺
03.04.26	Novara - Lumezzane	1:3 ✺
28.03.26	Lumezzane - AlbinoLeffe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.9 WTWWT
- ASD Alcione
Italian Serie C Group A
25.04.26	Alcione - AlbinoLeffe	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Virtus Verona - Alcione	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Alcione - Lecco	0:2 ✺
04.04.26	Trento - Alcione	1:0 ✺
28.03.26	Alcione - Pro Vercelli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
17.01.26	Lumezzane - Alcione	1:0
06.09.25	Alcione - Lumezzane	1:0
09.03.25	Lumezzane - Alcione	1:1
26.10.24	Alcione - Lumezzane	1:0
Italian Serie D - Group B
05.02.23	Alcione - Lumezzane	1:0
02.10.22	Lumezzane - Alcione	3:1

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