Match Info

Serie C - Group A - Round 38

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Tullio Saleri (Lumezzane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 251, Telechiara
World	FIFA+


	Lumezzane		Padova

	1	X	2
	6.6	4.1	1.47
	7.43	4.59	1.38
	6.84	4.31	1.46	Watch
	7.23	4.15	1.39	Watch
	6.6	4.1	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.94 ↑ (4.57)	4.25 ↑ (4.01)	1.43 ↓ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lumezzane
13.4%

Draw
21.9%

Padova
64.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

22.9%

56.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

22.2%

58.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lumezzane has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Lumezzane's form might have worsened.

Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Padova's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lumezzane than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Lumezzane, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Padova, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Lumezzane - Padova Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Carnelos M. (G) 7. Moscati M. 3. Pisano E. 53. Pittino T. 25. Pagliari M. 16. Tenkorang J. 5. Taugourdeau A. 28. Scanzi M. 10. Malotti M. 11. Corti N. 32. Iori M.	1. Fortin M. (G) 4. Belli F. 2. Delli Carri F. 5. Perrotta M. 17. Capelli A. 8. Fusi P. 6. Crisetig L. 7. Varas K. 14. Villa L. 92. Buonaiuto C. 20. Bortolussi M.
Substitutes
92. Baldini E. 19. D'Agostino S. 21. Dalmazzi A. 31. Ferro M. 12. Ottolini E. (G) 77. Pannitteri O. 24. Piga M. 6. Pogliano C. 66. Regazzetti S. 30. Tremolada M.	15. Bianchi N. 11. Cretella C. 72. Faedo C. 30. Favale G. 23. Granata A. 26. Kirwan N. 21. Liguori M. 37. Montrone A. 31. Pirrello R. 10. Russini S. 16. Sala A. (G) 9. Spagnoli A. 77. Tumiatti F. 19. Valente N. 12. Voltan M. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Moscati M. 🟨,
40', Delli Carri F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
61', Iori M. ↓, Baldini E. ↑,
61', Scanzi M. ↓, D'Agostino S. ↑,
66', Buonaiuto C. ↓, Liguori M. ↑,
75', Tenkorang J. 🟨,
83', Capelli A. ↓, Kirwan N. ↑,
83', Bortolussi M. ↓, Spagnoli A. ↑,
90', Crisetig L. ↓, Bianchi N. ↑,
90', Varas K. ↓, Cretella C. ↑,
90+1', Moscati M. ↓, Regazzetti S. ↑,
90+1', Malotti M. ↓, Pannitteri O. ↑,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 14 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lumezzane won 0.

Lumezzane is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Padova is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

In this match Padova is a favorite.

There will not play in Lumezzane: Deratti J. (Inactive) Filigheddu S. (Inactive) Monachello G. (Injury)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Lumezzane won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 2:11 (average 0.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Lumezzane won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:3 (average 0.3:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lumezzane
Italian Serie C Group A
18.04.25	Pro Patria - Lumezzane	4:1 ✺
11.04.25	Lumezzane - Novara	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	FeralpiSalò - Lumezzane	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Lumezzane - Caldiero Terme	2:2 ✺
23.03.25	AlbinoLeffe - Lumezzane	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTTTL
- Calcio Padova
Italian Serie C Group A
18.04.25	Padova - Union Clodiense	2:1 ✺
13.04.25	Triestina - Padova	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Padova - Lecco	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Atalanta U23 - Padova	1:1 ✺
23.03.25	Novara - Padova	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group A
14.12.24	Padova - Lumezzane	2:0
07.04.24	Lumezzane - Padova	1:1
03.12.23	Padova - Lumezzane	1:1
Coppa Italia Serie C
30.11.23	Padova - Lumezzane	2:0
Italian Serie C Group B
07.05.17	Padova - Lumezzane	2:0
18.12.16	Lumezzane - Padova	0:0
Italian Serie C Group A
30.01.16	Lumezzane - Padova	0:2

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