Match Info

League One - Round 13

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Joyce R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	LTFC+


	Luton Town		Mansfield Town

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.6	4.5	Watch
	1.72	3.7	4.45	Watch
	1.79	3.77	4.75
	4.45	2.99	1.96	Watch
	1.79	3.73	4.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↑ (1.65)	3.56 ↓ (3.87)	4.06 ↓ (4.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
45.4%

Draw
29.1%

Mansfield Town
25.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.7%

24.2%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

23.5%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Luton Town's form might have worsened.

Mansfield Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mansfield Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Luton Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Mansfield Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	0%	30%

Luton Town - Mansfield Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Mansfield will win (votes: 3 - 30%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 28. Makosso C. 5. Andersen M. 15. Mengi T. 3. Naismith K. (C) 22. Dabo L. 23. Saville G. 30. Kodua G. 18. Clark J. 7. Alli M. 21. Wells N.	1. Roberts L. (G) 2. Knoyle K. 23. Oshilaja A. 20. Blake-Tracy F. 3. McLaughlin S. (C) 15. McDonnell J. 8. Lewis A. 22. Moriah-Welsh N. 29. Roberts T. 18. Oates R. 11. Evans W.
Substitutes
33. Bramall C. 13. Nakamba M. 37. Nelson Z. 20. Nordas L. 27. Richards J. 1. Shea J. (G) 9. Yates J.	9. Bowery J. 17. Dickov M. 14. Dwyer D. 28. Gardner J. 24. Hendry R. 12. Mason O. (G) 5. Sweeney R.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Clough N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', Wells N. (Pen),
40', 0 - 1, Oates R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', 0 - 2, Roberts T. (Pen),
60', Wells N. ↓, Yates J. ↑,
60', Dabo L. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
68', Roberts T. ↓, Hendry R. ↑,
68', Oates R. ↓, Gardner J. ↑,
72', Kodua G. ↓, Bramall C. ↑,
75', Evans W. ↓, Bowery J. ↑,
80', Mengi T. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
84', Moriah-Welsh N. ↓, Dickov M. ↑,
85', Blake-Tracy F. ↓, Sweeney R. ↑,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 11 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 2.

Recent form of Luton has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Mansfield's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mansfield may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Luton has had a series of away games.

In this match, Luton is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Calf Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Jones I. (Back Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Odoffin H. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mansfield: Bolton L. (Knee Injury) Cargill B. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Walsh L. (Shoulder Injury) Walters R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Mansfield: Flanagan F. (Injury) Hendry R. (Injury) Reed L. (Groin Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Luton won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 16:11. (average 1.5:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 9:5. (average 1.5:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English EFL Trophy
07.10.25	Cambridge United - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
English League One
04.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	2:0 ✺
30.09.25	Blackpool - Luton Town	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Luton Town - Doncaster Rovers	1:0 ✺
20.09.25	Lincoln City - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLTWL
- Mansfield Town
English EFL Trophy
15.10.25	Mansfield Town - Newcastle United U21	2:3 penalties ✺
English League One
04.10.25	Reading - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
27.09.25	Mansfield Town - Rotherham United	2:1 ✺
20.09.25	Port Vale - Mansfield Town	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mansfield Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
02.04.18	Luton Town - Mansfield Town	2:1
26.08.17	Mansfield Town - Luton Town	2:2
17.04.17	Mansfield Town - Luton Town	1:1
22.10.16	Luton Town - Mansfield Town	1:1
23.01.16	Mansfield Town - Luton Town	0:2
19.09.15	Luton Town - Mansfield Town	1:0
17.02.15	Mansfield Town - Luton Town	1:0

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