Match Info

League One - Round 9

Date: 20 September 2025, Saturday

Location: LNER stadium (Lincoln)

Referee: Stockbridge S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	LTFC+, Sky Sports+


	Lincoln City		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.2	2.1
	3.35	3.25	2.12
	3.53	3.4	2.17
	1.61	3.69	5.66	Watch
	3.42	3.34	2.17	Watch
	3.9	3.2	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.19 ↓ (3.5)	3.35 ↑ (3.2)	2.7 ↑ (2.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lincoln City
32%

Draw
30.4%

Luton Town
37.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.6%

29.1%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.1%

28.6%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lincoln City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lincoln City's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Luton Town might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lincoln City than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Luton Town could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Lincoln City - Luton Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0, 1st Half - Lincoln (2.27) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (11 of 11 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luton Town will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Lincoln (votes: 1 - 25%). Luton (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Wickens G. (G) 2. Darikwa T. (C) 5. Jackson A. 15. Bradley S. 3. Reach A. 17. Street R. 14. McGrandles C. 8. Bayliss T. 18. House B. 34. Draper F. 9. Collins J.	24. Keeley J. (G) 15. Mengi T. 5. Andersen M. 3. Naismith K. (C) 23. Saville G. 17. Lonwijk N. 7. Alli M. 37. Nelson Z. 18. Clark J. 21. Wells N. 9. Yates J.
Substitutes
22. Hamer T. 13. Jeacock Z. (G) 36. Obikwu J. 19. Okoronkwo F. 12. Ring E. 6. Towler R. 24. Varfolomeev I.	33. Bramall C. 22. Dabo L. 31. Gbode J. 28. Makosso C. 14. Morris S. 20. Nordas L. 1. Shea J. (G)
Coaches
Skubala M.	Bloomfield M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, House B. ⚽, Draper F. (A),
17', Collins J. 🟨,
24', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
45+2', Yates J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Yates J. ↓, Gbode J. ↑,
53', Saville G. 🟨,
55', Mengi T. 🟨,
60', Mengi T. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
65', Nelson Z. ↓, Makosso C. ↑,
65', Naismith K. ↓, Bramall C. ↑,
66', Street R. ↓, Hamer T. ↑,
72', Gbode J. 🟨,
77', 1 - 1, Clark J. ⚽, Alli M. (A),
79', Draper F. ↓, Okoronkwo F. ↑,
80', Collins J. ↓, Obikwu J. ↑,
85', 2 - 1, Obikwu J. ⚽,
88', Wells N. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 1, House B. ⚽, Obikwu J. (A),
90+7', House B. ↓, Ring E. ↑,
90+7', Bayliss T. ↓, Varfolomeev I. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 7 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lincoln won 0.

Lincoln is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Luton has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Lincoln may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Luton has had a series of home games.

Luton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Lincoln: Moylan J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Calf Injury) Brown J. (Ankle Injury) Jones I. (Back Injury) Lockyer T. (Ankle Injury) Odoffin H. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Lincoln: Jefferies D. (Hip Injury) Lembikisa D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Luton: Mengi T. (Knee Injury) Walters R. (Groin Injury)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Lincoln won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:12. (average 0.8:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lincoln won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2. (average 0.3:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lincoln City
English League One
13.09.25	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Lincoln City - Wigan Athletic	2:2 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Lincoln City - Notts County	3:0 ✺
English League One
30.08.25	Lincoln City - Mansfield Town	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
26.08.25	Burton Albion - Lincoln City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 WTWTW
- Luton Town
English League One
13.09.25	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	2:3 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.09.25	Luton Town - Barnet	4:1 ✺
English League One
30.08.25	Burton Albion - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
23.08.25	Luton Town - Cardiff City	0:1 ✺
19.08.25	Luton Town - Wigan Athletic	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
01.01.18	Luton Town - Lincoln City	4:2
02.09.17	Lincoln City - Luton Town	0:0
English National League
04.01.14	Lincoln City - Luton Town	0:0
21.09.13	Luton Town - Lincoln City	3:2
09.04.13	Luton Town - Lincoln City	3:0
06.10.12	Lincoln City - Luton Town	1:2

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