Match Info

EFL Trophy - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Luton Town		Plymouth Argyle

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.5	2.88	Watch
	2.1	3.5	2.8
	2.18	3.45	2.92	Watch
	2.49	3.47	2.63	Watch
	2.1	3.3	2.8
	2.17	3.34	2.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.12)	3.43 ↑ (3.35)	2.83 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
41.4%

Draw
26.5%

Plymouth Argyle
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.5%

27%

30.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.8%

27.2%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Plymouth Argyle has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Plymouth Argyle than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Plymouth (2.08) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Plymouth (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Shea J. (G) 25. Jones I. 5. Andersen M. 15. Mengi T. 3. Naismith K. (C) 23. Saville G. 18. Clark J. 30. Kodua G. 6. van den Berg D. 27. Richards J. 21. Wells N.	1. Hazard C. (G) 8. Edwards J. (C) 2. Ross M. 15. Mitchell A. 45. Harding W. 28. Curtis R. 19. Boateng M. 4. Wiredu B. 29. Sorinola M. 10. Amaechi X. 27. Pepple A.
Substitutes
44. Fox H. 38. Johnson J. 24. Keeley J. (G) 32. Lawrence E. 17. Lonwijk N. 14. Morris S. 54. Palmer K.	21. Ashby-Hammond L. (G) 13. Baker Z. (G) 39. Finn T. 23. Ibrahim B. 3. MacKenzie J. 5. Pleguezuelo J. 17. Watts C.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Cleverley T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Jones I. ⚽, Richards J. (A),
33', Mengi T. ↓, Lonwijk N. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Andersen M. ↓, Johnson J. ↑,
46', Kodua G. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
46', Ibrahim B. ↓, Watts C. ↑,
46', Amaechi X. ↓, MacKenzie J. ↑,
55', Edwards J. 🟨,
65', Sorinola M. ↓, Finn T. ↑,
65', van den Berg D. ↓, Palmer K. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Finn T. ⚽, Curtis R. (A),
88', Ross M. 🟨,
89', Hazard C. 🟨,
89', 2 - 1, Clark J. (Penalty Awarded),
90', Edwards J. ↓, Pleguezuelo J. ↑,
90+5', Richards J. ↓, Lawrence E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Luton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Luton won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 16:13. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).

Outrights of English EFL Trophy for now

Luton: 5.84% Plymouth: 3.78%

Last Results with these Odds

Luton Town - the odds 2.12 are the expected chance of winning is 42.55%, but this team recently wins 30% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
21.02.26	Luton Town - Burton Albion	1:1 ✺
18.02.26	Wigan Athletic - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Cardiff City - Luton Town	3:1 ✺
07.02.26	Luton Town - Bradford City	2:1 ✺
31.01.26	Luton Town - Blackpool	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 TLLWW
- Plymouth Argyle
English League One
21.02.26	Plymouth Argyle - Cardiff City	5:2 ✺
17.02.26	Leyton Orient - Plymouth Argyle	1:3 ✺
14.02.26	Blackpool - Plymouth Argyle	0:4 ✺
07.02.26	Plymouth Argyle - Lincoln City	1:4 ✺
31.01.26	Stockport County - Plymouth Argyle	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
24.01.26	Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town	1:0
13.09.25	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	2:3
English League Championship
19.02.25	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	1:1
27.09.24	Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town	3:1
English League One
09.03.19	Plymouth Argyle - Luton Town	0:0
17.11.18	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	5:1
English League Two
25.02.17	Luton Town - Plymouth Argyle	1:1

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