Match Info

League One - Round 20

Date: 13 December 2025, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Swabey L. (Eng)


	Luton Town		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.4	4.5	Watch
	1.82	3.45	4.25	Watch
	1.83	3.55	4.68
	1.8	3.51	4.51	Watch
	1.8	3.3	4.4
	1.78	3.46	4.62	Watch
	1.78	3.4	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.76)	3.44 ↓ (3.45)	4.53 ↓ (4.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
52.2%

Draw
27.2%

Port Vale
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.2%

27.1%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

26.6%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	21.4%	0%

Luton Town - Port Vale Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Luton (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (11 of 14 users predict this - 78.57%).
Confidence interval (95%): 57.08% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 17. Lonwijk N. 15. Mengi T. 5. Andersen M. 3. Naismith K. (C) 8. Walsh L. 23. Saville G. 7. Alli M. 30. Kodua G. 33. Bramall C. 19. Brown J.	13. Amos B. (G) 24. Kyle John 4. Heneghan B. 5. Hall C. 3. Headley J. 33. Hall G. 14. Ojo F. 7. Byers G. (C) 19. Waine B. 44. Cole D. 17. Paton R.
Substitutes
18. Clark J. 22. Fanne L. 28. Makosso C. 14. Morris S. 20. Nordas L. 1. Shea J. (G) 21. Wells N.	10. Brown D. 18. Croasdale R. 22. Debrah J. 36. Faal M. 46. Gauci J. (G) 9. Stockley J. 12. Walters R.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Moore D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', Heneghan B. 🟨,
26', 1 - 0, Bramall C. ⚽,
34', Ojo F. ↓, Walters R. ↑,
42', 1 - 1, Waine B. ⚽, Paton R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Alli M. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
54', 1 - 2, Cole D. ⚽,
62', Saville G. ↓, Clark J. ↑,
62', Brown J. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
65', Clark J. 🟨,
70', 2 - 2, Andersen M. ⚽, Walsh L. (A),
71', Lonwijk N. ↓, Fanne L. ↑,
76', Hall G. ↓, Brown D. ↑,
76', Paton R. ↓, Faal M. ↑,
77', Byers G. 🟨,
85', Waine B. ↓, Stockley J. ↑,
85', Kyle John ↓, Debrah J. ↑,
86', Walsh L. ↓, Nordas L. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 7 and 24 in the zone Relegation ~ League Two).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Luton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Port Vale has had a series of home games.

In this match, Luton is the team to beat.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Inactive) Jones I. (Injury) Wells N. (Injury)

There will not play in Port Vale: Clark M. (Neck Injury) Garrity B. (Inactive) Gordon L. (Injury) Lawrence-Gabriel J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Luton: Baptiste S. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Port Vale: Johnson M. (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Luton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Luton won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
09.12.25	Leyton Orient - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Fleetwood Town - Luton Town	3:2 penalties ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Luton Town - Exeter City	4:0 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Luton Town - Bolton Wanderers	1:1 ✺
25.11.25	Luton Town - Huddersfield Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLWTW
- Port Vale
English FA Cup
06.12.25	Port Vale - Bristol Rovers	1:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Port Vale - Barnsley	5:0 ✺
English League One
29.11.25	Lincoln City - Port Vale	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Port Vale - Plymouth Argyle	0:1 ✺
15.11.25	Port Vale - Wycombe Wanderers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWLLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
30.12.17	Port Vale - Luton Town	4:0
12.09.17	Luton Town - Port Vale	2:0

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