Match Info

League One - Round 26

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Mather S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Luton Town		Stevenage Borough

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.1	4.33
	1.88	3.25	4.25
	1.84	3.33	4.56	Watch
	1.91	3	4
	1.96	3.13	4.17	Watch
	1.92	3.2	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.14)	3.17 ↑ (3.08)	4.27 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
49%

Draw
29.3%

Stevenage Borough
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

29.8%

27.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.2%

28.9%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Luton Town's performance.

Stevenage Borough has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stevenage Borough might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.9%	8.7%	17.4%

Luton Town - Stevenage Borough Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Luton will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%). Stevenage will win (votes: 3 - 13.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Luton: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Luton Town will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Keeley J. (G) 17. Lonwijk N. 28. Makosso C. 5. Andersen M. 38. Johnson J. 30. Kodua G. 8. Walsh L. 18. Clark J. (C) 22. Fanne L. 32. Lawrence E. 21. Wells N.	1. Marschall F. (G) 2. James-Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 16. Freestone L. 11. Roberts J. 18. White H. 10. Kemp D. 8. Phillips D. 44. Patterson P. 19. Reid J.
Substitutes
33. Bramall C. 14. Morris S. 37. Nelson Z. 23. Saville G. 1. Shea J. (G) 2. Walters R. 9. Yates J.	13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 20. Campbell C. 4. Houghton J. 24. Malcolm J. 17. Pattenden J. 6. Sweeney D. 23. Thompson L.
Coaches
Wilshere J.	Revell A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Lonwijk N. 🟨,
29', Clark J. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Fanne L. ↓, Morris S. ↑,
53', 0 - 1, Freestone L. ⚽,
55', 1 - 1, Clark J. ⚽,
62', Lawrence E. ↓, Bramall C. ↑,
64', 2 - 1, Kodua G. ⚽, Wells N. (A),
69', Roberts J. 🟨,
70', Patterson P. ↓, Campbell C. ↑,
70', Phillips D. ↓, Houghton J. ↑,
70', White H. ↓, Thompson L. ↑,
77', Wells N. ↓, Yates J. ↑,
84', Kemp D. ↓, Malcolm J. ↑,
90', Freestone L. 🟨,
90+1', Roberts J. ↓, Sweeney D. ↑,
90+3', Kodua G. ↓, Saville G. ↑,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 8 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Luton won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

In this match, Luton is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Inactive) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Jones I. (Injury) Richards J. (Injury)

There will not play in Stevenage: Simpson T. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Luton: Makosso C. (Inactive) Naismith K. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Young J. (Inactive)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Luton won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 15:13. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Luton won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 6.84% Stevenage: 2.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Stevenage	7	2	3	2	11:8	3	9
16	Luton	7	2	2	3	12:14	-2	8

Last Results with these Odds

Luton Town - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 42.88%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Stevenage Borough - the odds 3.37 are the expected chance of winning is 27.27%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League One
01.01.26	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:0 ✺
29.12.25	Luton Town - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
26.12.25	Luton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
18.12.25	Reading - Luton Town	3:2 ✺
13.12.25	Luton Town - Port Vale	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LWWLT
- Stevenage Borough
English League One
01.01.26	Stevenage Borough - Plymouth Argyle	1:1 ✺
29.12.25	Cardiff City - Stevenage Borough	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	AFC Wimbledon - Stevenage Borough	0:0 ✺
20.12.25	Stevenage Borough - Burton Albion	2:2 ✺
13.12.25	Stockport County - Stevenage Borough	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 TLTTW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
04.10.25	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	2:0
English League Cup
10.08.21	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	3:2 penalties
English League Two
10.02.18	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	1:1
14.10.17	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	7:1
11.03.17	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:2
20.08.16	Stevenage Borough - Luton Town	2:1
02.04.16	Luton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1

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