Match Info

League One - Round 24

Date: 1 January 2026, Thursday

Location: St James Park (Exeter)

Referee: Russell M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Exeter City		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	3.3	3.5	2.05	Watch
	3.5	3.4	2.05
	3.45	3.35	2.08	Watch
	3.53	3.47	2.03	Watch
	3.4	3.2	2.1
	3.54	3.32	2.07	Watch
	3.6	3.33	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↓ (3.6)	3.37 ↑ (3.2)	2.06 ↑ (2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter City
26.9%

Draw
27.8%

Luton Town
45.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.5%

28.7%

45.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.2%

26.9%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Exeter City than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10%	10%	80%

Exeter City - Luton Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Luton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Luton Town will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Whitworth J. (G) 26. Sweeney P. (C) 5. Fitzwater J. 16. Swinkels S. 14. Niskanen I. 6. Brierley E. 31. Doyle-Hayes J. 2. McMillan J. 10. Aitchison J. 19. Cox S. 9. Wareham J.	1. Shea J. (G) 17. Lonwijk N. 2. Walters R. 15. Mengi T. 38. Johnson J. 8. Walsh L. 23. Saville G. 14. Morris S. 18. Clark J. (C) 33. Bramall C. 9. Yates J.
Substitutes
23. Bycroft J. (G) 12. Cole R. 8. Francis E. 17. Higgins A. 7. Mendes C. 34. Oakes L. 20. Woodhouse L.	5. Andersen M. 19. Brown J. 22. Fanne L. 44. Fox H. 37. Nelson Z. 41. Thomas L. (G) 21. Wells N.
Coaches
Caldwell G.	Wilshere J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Doyle-Hayes J. 🟨,
29', Cox S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 1 - 0, Sweeney P. ⚽,
62', Yates J. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
62', Morris S. ↓, Brown J. ↑,
63', Cox S. ↓, Mendes C. ↑,
67', Brown J. 🟨,
70', Doyle-Hayes J. ↓, Cole R. ↑,
76', Saville G. ↓, Fanne L. ↑,
76', Walters R. ↓, Nelson Z. ↑,
78', Brierley E. 🟨,
88', Aitchison J. ↓, Woodhouse L. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 20 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Luton will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Exeter: Andrew D. (Inactive) Borges P. (Knee Injury) Magennis J. (Inactive) Rydel R. (Inactive) Turns E. (Inactive) Yfeko J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Luton: Adebayo E. (Knee Injury) Al Hamadi A. (Inactive) Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Jones I. (Injury) Nakamba M. (International duty) Richards J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Naismith K. (Inactive)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:23. (average 1:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:11. (average 1:1.8).

Outrights of English League One for now

Luton: 6.87%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Luton	7	2	2	3	12:14	-2	8

Last Results with these Odds

Exeter City - the odds 3.6 are the expected chance of winning is 25.48%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter City
English League One
29.12.25	AFC Wimbledon - Exeter City	0:1 ✺
26.12.25	Cardiff City - Exeter City	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Exeter City - Barnsley	3:0 ✺
13.12.25	Bolton Wanderers - Exeter City	2:1 ✺
09.12.25	Exeter City - AFC Wimbledon	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLW
- Luton Town
English League One
29.12.25	Luton Town - Leyton Orient	3:0 ✺
26.12.25	Luton Town - Wycombe Wanderers	4:0 ✺
18.12.25	Reading - Luton Town	3:2 ✺
13.12.25	Luton Town - Port Vale	2:2 ✺
09.12.25	Leyton Orient - Luton Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

English EFL Trophy
02.12.25	Luton Town - Exeter City	4:0
English League Cup
26.09.23	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:0
English League Two
03.02.18	Luton Town - Exeter City	1:0
17.10.17	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:4
18.03.17	Luton Town - Exeter City	1:1
26.11.16	Exeter City - Luton Town	0:0
English FA Cup
05.11.16	Exeter City - Luton Town	1:3

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