Match Info

ENGLAND: PREMIER LEAGUE - ROUND 4

Date: 1 September 2023, Friday

Location: Kenilworth Road (Luton)

Referee: Tierney P. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	Sky Sport
Brazil	ESPN 4
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Germany	Sky Sport Premier League, Sky Sport Top event
Greece	Nova Sports
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Eleven Sports 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	Sky Sports


	Luton Town		West Ham United

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.8	1.7
	4.9	4	1.74
	4.75	4	1.71
	4.89	4.08	1.73
	4	3.4	1.73
	4.7	3.95	1.71	Watch
	4.8	4	1.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.68 ↑ (3.85)	3.89 ↑ (3.54)	1.72 ↓ (1.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Network on TV: NBC Universo

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Current Win Probability

Luton Town
20.3%

Draw
24.5%

West Ham United
55.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.5%

26.7%

48.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

26.2%

47.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

West Ham United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting West Ham United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Luton Town than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for West Ham United than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for West Ham United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
6.5%	2.2%	91.4%

Luton Town - West Ham United Predictions

Users Predictions: West Ham United will win (170 of 186 users predict this - 91.4%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.37% – 95.43%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Kaminski T. (G) 45. Doughty A. 16. Burke R. 5. Andersen M. 29. Bell A. 26. Giles R. 14. Chong T. 13. Nakamba M. 6. Barkley R. 11. Adebayo E. 9. Morris C. (C)	23. Areola A. (G) 5. Coufal V. 4. Zouma K. (C) 27. Aguerd N. 33. Emerson 19. Alvarez E. 7. Ward-Prowse J. 20. Bowen J. 10. Paqueta L. 22. Benrahma S. 9. Antonio M.
Substitutes
8. Berry L. 19. Brown J. 40. Francis-Clarke A. 38. Johnson J. 12. Kabore I. 23. Krul T. (G) 17. Mpanzu P. 7. Ogbene C. 10. Woodrow C.	17. Cornet M. 3. Cresswell A. 1. Fabianski L. (G) 8. Fornals P. 18. Ings D. 24. Kehrer T. 14. Kudus M. 45. Mubama D. 21. Ogbonna A.
Coaches
Edwards R.	Moyes D.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Luton could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match West Ham is a favorite.

There will not play in Luton: Clark J. (Ankle Injury) Osho G. (Knee Injury) Potts D. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in West Ham: Mavropanos K. (Lower Back Injury)

There are questionable in West Ham: Soucek T. (Head Injury)

Last 1 head-to-head matches Luton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Luton won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Luton Town
English League Cup
29.08.23	Luton Town - Gillingham	3:2 ✺
English Premier League
25.08.23	Chelsea - Luton Town	3:0 ✺
12.08.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - Luton Town	4:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Bochum - Luton Town	1:3 ✺
05.08.23	Bochum - Luton Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLLWL
- West Ham United
English Premier League
26.08.23	Brighton & Hove Albion - West Ham United	1:3 ✺
20.08.23	West Ham United - Chelsea	3:1 ✺
12.08.23	Bournemouth - West Ham United	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
05.08.23	Bayer Leverkusen - West Ham United	4:0 ✺
29.07.23	Rennes - West Ham United	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 WWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
23.07.22	Luton Town - West Ham United	1:1

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