Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 25

Date: 8 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Wattellier E. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 5
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
France	DAZN France, Ligue 1+, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Italy	Ligue 1+, Sky Sport Uno
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports
Kosovo	ART Sport 5
Malta	TVM Sport+
Mexico	FOX One, Fox Sports
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 5
Slovakia	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+
World	Onefootball


	Lyon		Paris FC

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.7	4.75	Watch
	1.66	3.9	5
	1.75	3.7	4.65	Watch
	1.82	3.95	4.91
	1.6	4.11	5.58	Watch
	1.65	3.8	4.8
	1.65	4.25	5.74	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.64)	3.92 ↑ (3.89)	5.06 ↓ (5.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 0.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
56.6%

Draw
24.5%

Paris FC
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.5%

24.3%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.6%

23.8%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Paris FC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris FC than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.7%	18%	3.3%

Lyon - Paris FC Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Lyon (2.10) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 3 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Paris FC (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lyon will win (48 of 60 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.88% – 90.12%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (18 of 20 users predict this - 90%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 20 - 87%). Paris FC (votes: 1 - 4.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Greif D. (G) 22. Mata C. 19. Niakhate M. (C) 33. Hateboer H. 3. Tagliafico N. 6. Tessmann T. 23. Morton T. 16. Abner Vinicius 7. Karabec A. 44. Merah K. 45. Himbert R.	35. Trapp K. (G) 17. Camara A. 42. Coppola D. 5. Mbow M. 19. Sangui N. 18. Munetsi M. 33. Lees-Melou P. (C) 23. Matondo R. 93. Ikone J. 11. Krasso J. 27. Simon M.
Substitutes
40. Descamps R. (G) 9. Endrick 18. Ghezzal R. 34. Hamdani A. 38. Kango S. 5. Mangala O. 99. Nartey N. 8. Tolisso C. 77. Yaremchuk R.	13. Cafaro M. 9. Geubbels W. 7. Gory A. 36. Immobile C. 24. Koleosho L. 15. Kolodziejczak T. 4. Marchetti V. 16. Nkambadio O. (G) 2. Ollila T.
Coaches
Fonseca P.	Kombouare A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Morton T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Tagliafico N. 🟨,
58', Tagliafico N. ↓, Yaremchuk R. ↑,
58', Merah K. ↓, Tolisso C. ↑,
63', 0 - 1, Munetsi M. ⚽,
65', Karabec A. ↓, Endrick ↑,
65', Tessmann T. ↓, Nartey N. ↑,
73', Ikone J. ↓, Immobile C. ↑,
73', Krasso J. ↓, Koleosho L. ↑,
73', Simon M. ↓, Gory A. ↑,
82', Himbert R. ↓, Hamdani A. ↑,
87', Matondo R. ↓, Marchetti V. ↑,
90+1', Munetsi M. ↓, Ollila T. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Tolisso C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Paris FC may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lyon: Fofana M. (Ankle Injury) Kamara N. (Inactive) Kluivert R. (Hamstring Injury) Maitland-Niles A. (Injury) Moreira A. (Injury) Nuamah E. (Knee Injury) Sulc P. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Paris FC: Alakouch S. (Injury) Chergui S. (Injury) De Smet T. (Red Card) Hamel P. (Calf Injury) Kebbal I. (Yellow Cards) Lopez M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Otavio (Yellow Cards) Riou R. (Injury) Traore H. (Knee Injury)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 4.01% Paris FC: 1.81%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10:2	8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8:3	5	11

Last Results with these Odds

Lyon - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.53%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
Coupe De France
05.03.26	Lyon - Lens	2:3 penalties ✺
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Olympique Marseille - Lyon	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Strasbourg - Lyon	3:1 ✺
15.02.26	Lyon - Nice	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Nantes - Lyon	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLLWW
- Paris FC
French Ligue 1
01.03.26	Paris FC - Nice	1:0 ✺
21.02.26	Toulouse - Paris FC	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Paris FC - Lens	0:5 ✺
08.02.26	Auxerre - Paris FC	0:0 ✺
Coupe De France
04.02.26	Lorient - Paris FC	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 WTLTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
29.10.25	Paris FC - Lyon	3:3
Coupe De France
17.12.21	Paris FC - Lyon	Canceled

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