Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 34

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon)

Referee: Letexier F. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2
Albania	SuperSport 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 1, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 5, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	Caze TV
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 2, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free, Molotov TV
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX
Italy	Ligue 1+, NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 4
Mexico	FOX+, FOX One
Netherlands	Viaplay
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Portugal	Sport TV4, Sport TV6
Romania	Voyo
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 4, Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 2, Voyo
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport 1
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	beIN Connect
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Ligue 1+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
World	Onefootball


	Lyon		Lens

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.5	Watch
	1.71	4.2	4.33
	1.52	4.7	5.45	Watch
	1.54	4.98	5.72
	1.75	3.99	4.42	Watch
	1.5	4.4	5
	1.55	4.93	6.04	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (2.49)	4.53 ↑ (3.52)	5.21 ↑ (2.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lyon
60.5%

Draw
21.1%

Lens
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

26.8%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

26.7%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lyon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+22.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lyon's performance.

Lens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lens might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lyon than the current prediction. (-22.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lyon that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lens than the current prediction. (+16.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lens could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.2%	9.9%	6.9%

Lyon - Lens Predictions

Users Predictions: 101 users predict this event. Lyon will win (votes: 84 - 83.2%). Lens will win (votes: 7 - 6.9%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 9.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lyon: 75.9% – 90.5%. The data is statistically significant.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Lyon (1.62) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lyon will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. Lyon (votes: 20 - 95.2%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Greif D. (G) 22. Mata C. 21. Kluivert R. 19. Niakhate M. 16. Abner Vinicius 5. Mangala O. 8. Tolisso C. (C) 98. Maitland-Niles A. 10. Sulc P. 17. Moreira A. 9. Endrick	16. Gorgelin M. (G) 32. Antonio K. 4. Celik N. 20. Sarr M. 23. Abdulhamid S. 21. Haidara A. 5. Bulatovic A. 27. Masuaku A. 10. Thauvin F. 22. Said W. 7. Sotoca F. (C)
Substitutes
39. de Carvalho M. 40. Descamps R. (G) 11. Fofana M. 33. Hateboer H. 44. Merah K. 99. Nartey N. 37. Nuamah E. 3. Tagliafico N. 77. Yaremchuk R.	2. Aguilar R. 38. Fofana R. 25. Ganiou I. 40. Risser R. (G) 19. Sima A. 41. Soares M. 18. Sylla F. 28. Thomasson A. 14. Udol M.
Coaches
Fonseca P.	Sage P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', Sarr M. 🟨,
20', 0 - 1, Said W. ⚽, Antonio K. (A),
27', Abdulhamid S. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Said W. ⚽, Haidara A. (A),
39', Antonio K. ↓, Ganiou I. ↑,
45+1', 0 - 3, Sotoca F. ⚽, Thauvin F. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Kluivert R. ↓, Yaremchuk R. ↑,
46', Maitland-Niles A. ↓, Hateboer H. ↑,
46', Sarr M. ↓, Udol M. ↑,
46', Abdulhamid S. ↓, Aguilar R. ↑,
54', 0 - 4, Thauvin F. ⚽, Bulatovic A. (A),
61', Thauvin F. ↓, Sima A. ↑,
61', Haidara A. ↓, Thomasson A. ↑,
63', Sulc P. 🟨,
71', Endrick ↓, Fofana M. ↑,
71', Mangala O. ↓, Nuamah E. ↑,
73', Aguilar R. 🟨,
83', Celik N. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

Lens is Qualified for Champions League (League phase )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 1.

Lyon is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Lens has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, Lyon is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lyon: Morton T. (Inactive) Tessmann T. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Lens: Baidoo S. (Injury) Gradit J. (Thigh Injury) Gurtner R. (Muscle Injury)

We predict that Lyon will win today's game, with odds of 1.72.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Lyon won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:23. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Lyon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:15. (average 1.4:1.9).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

Lyon: 2.96% Lens: 1.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Lyon	6	3	2	1	11:4	7	11
9	Lens	6	2	1	3	11:10	1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Lyon - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 37.93%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Olympique Lyon
French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Toulouse - Lyon	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Lyon - Rennes	4:2 ✺
25.04.26	Lyon - Auxerre	3:2 ✺
19.04.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Lyon	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Lyon - Lorient	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.1 LWWWW
- RC Lens
French Ligue 1
13.05.26	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	0:2 ✺
08.05.26	Lens - Nantes	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Nice - Lens	1:1 ✺
24.04.26	Brest - Lens	3:3 ✺
Coupe De France
21.04.26	Lens - Toulouse	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Coupe De France
05.03.26	Lyon - Lens	2:3 penalties
French Ligue 1
16.08.25	Lens - Lyon	0:1
04.05.25	Lyon - Lens	1:2
15.09.24	Lens - Lyon	0:0
03.03.24	Lyon - Lens	0:3
02.12.23	Lens - Lyon	3:2
12.02.23	Lyon - Lens	2:1

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