The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Málaga 48.6%
Draw 28.6%
Ponferradina 22.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
37.5%
29.8%
32.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
37.3%
30%
33%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Málaga's performance.
Ponferradina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ponferradina might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-11.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponferradina than the current prediction. (+10.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ponferradina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
54.8%
29%
16.1%
Málaga - Ponferradina Predictions
Users Predictions:
31 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 17 - 54.8%). Ponferradina will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 29%). Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 37.3% – 72.3%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Preview
In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 22 in the zone Relegation and 18).
Málaga has the most likely position - 22 (25.02%), has project points - 41, has currently - 11, has a good chance of relegated (66%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (<1%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
Ponferradina has the most likely position - 20 (10.31%), has project points - 47, has currently - 17, has a chance of relegated (38%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (3%), has a very small chance of promoted (1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
This event has small quality27, importance44, match rating35. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Last 5 head-to-head matches Málaga won 1.
Recent matches Málaga is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Ponferradina is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
Málaga will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 6 head-to-head matches Málaga won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-8.
Including matches at home between the teams Málaga won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.
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