Match Info

Date: 21 February 2021, Sunday


	Málaga		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2.3	Watch
	3.4	2.9	2.3
	3.4	2.9	2.35	Watch
	3.5	2.85	2.25
	3.79	2.99	2.33
	3.5	3	2.2	Watch
	3.58	2.8	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.51 ↑ (3.43)	2.92 ↓ (2.97)	2.31 ↑ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Málaga
26.9%

Draw
32.3%

Rayo Vallecano
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

27.5%

31.7%

40.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

23.2%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Málaga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

The chances for Rayo Vallecano have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Málaga that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+14.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rayo Vallecano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20.7%	34.5%	44.8%

Málaga - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Málaga will win (votes: 6 - 20.7%). Rayo Vallecano will win (votes: 13 - 44.8%). It will Tie (votes: 10 - 34.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Rayo Vallecano: 26.7% – 62.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 15 and 6 in the zone Promotion to LaLiga2 (Promotion to Play Offs)).

Málaga has a small chance of relegated (11%), has a very small chance of prom. playoffs (2%), has a very small chance of promoted (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Rayo Vallecano has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a good chance of prom. playoffs (66%), has a chance of promoted (21%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Two teams are in a poor body shape now.

Málaga could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Rayo Vallecano will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Málaga won 5 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 22-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Málaga won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
14.02.21	Sporting de Gijón - Málaga	1:0 ✺
07.02.21	Málaga - Zaragoza	1:2 ✺
30.01.21	Alcorcón - Málaga	0:1 ✺
23.01.21	Málaga - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
17.01.21	Málaga - Granada	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLL
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga2
13.02.21	Cartagena - Rayo Vallecano	2:2 ✺
07.02.21	Rayo Vallecano - Tenerife	0:1 ✺
31.01.21	Espanyol - Rayo Vallecano	2:3 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
27.01.21	Rayo Vallecano - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga2
23.01.21	Rayo Vallecano - Mallorca	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
03.10.20	Rayo Vallecano - Málaga	4:0
02.07.20	Rayo Vallecano - Málaga	0:0
17.09.19	Málaga - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
Spanish LaLiga
20.04.16	Málaga - Rayo Vallecano	1:1
13.12.15	Rayo Vallecano - Málaga	1:2
21.03.15	Rayo Vallecano - Málaga	1:0
26.10.14	Málaga - Rayo Vallecano	4:0

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