What is the expert prediction for Machida Zelvia vs Shabab Al-Ahli?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Machida Zelvia vs Shabab Al-Ahli. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Machida Zelvia vs Shabab Al-Ahli Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Tuesday, April 21, 2026)

Match Info

AFC Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 21 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2
Ukraine	Sport 1


	Machida Zelvia		Shabab Al-Ahli

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	2.4	3.05	2.92	Watch
	2.52	3.1	3.14
	2.46	3.09	2.99	Watch
	2.4	2.9	3
	2.5	3.15	3.03	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.46 ↑ (2.26)	3.06 ↓ (3.55)	3.02 ↑ (2.88)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
38.2%

Draw
30.7%

Shabab Al-Ahli
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

26.3%

32.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

25%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Shabab Al-Ahli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+5.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shabab Al-Ahli than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	50%	14.3%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Shabab Al-Ahli will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 53.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 3. Shoji G. (C) 50. Okamura D. 19. Nakayama Y. 88. Nakamura H. 16. Mae H. 31. Lavi N. 26. Hayashi K. 27. Erik 7. Soma Y. 99. Yengi T.	22. Al Meqebaali H. (G) 31. Kauan Santos 4. Planic B. 13. Renan 25. Gomes I. 80. Breno 6. Ezatolahi S. 10. Cartabia F. (C) 57. Yuri Cesar 77. Guilherme 21. Adil S.
Substitutes
44. Arai Y. (G) 5. Dresevic I. 9. Fujio S. 49. Kuwayama K. 11. Masuyama A. 6. Mochizuki H. 13. Morita T. (G) 10. Na Sang-Ho 8. Sento K. 18. Shimoda H. 23. Shirasaki R. 34. Tokumura F.	5. Abbas W. 18. Al Mansouri M. 1. Al Menhali R. (G) 26. Al Nuaimi E. 14. Garcia D. 28. Gonzalez Baquero S. 58. Irala E. 79. Joao Marcelo 19. Mateusao 75. Mateus Henrique 23. Seifi M. 70. Thiago
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Sousa P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
12', 1 - 0, Soma Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Sousa P. 🟨,
59', Erik ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
60', Planic B. ↓, Mateus Henrique ↑,
67', Adil S. ↓, Mateusao ↑,
67', Mateus Henrique ↓, Seifi M. ↑,
67', Cartabia F. ↓, Al Mansouri M. ↑,
68', Lavi N. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
68', Soma Y. ↓, Sento K. ↑,
68', Yengi T. ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
72', Fujio S. 🟨,
83', Ezatolahi S. ↓, Joao Marcelo ↑,
88', Cartabia F. 🟨,
90+1', Nakamura H. ↓, Mochizuki H. ↑,
90+4', Soma Y. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Machida Zelvia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Shabab Al-Ahli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Machida Zelvia has had a series of home games.

Recently, Shabab Al-Ahli has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
AFC Champions League
17.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Al-Ittihad Jeddah	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
11.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Tokyo - Machida Zelvia	0:1 penalties ✺
01.04.26	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo	0:3 ✺
28.03.26	Machida Zelvia - Kawasaki Frontale	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 WWWLW
- Shabab Al-Ahli Dubai
AFC Champions League
18.04.26	Buriram United - Shabab Al-Ahli	2:3 ET ✺
14.04.26	Tractor Sazi - Shabab Al-Ahli	0:3 ✺
UAE Football League
10.04.26	Al Ain - Shabab Al-Ahli	3:2 ✺
04.04.26	Shabab Al-Ahli - Al-Jazira	2:1 ✺
UAE Presidents Cup
21.03.26	Al-Jazira - Shabab Al-Ahli	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWLWL

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