Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 28

Date: 29 July 2023, Saturday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)


	Machida Zelvia		Tokushima Vortis

	1	X	2
	1.67	3.5	6	Watch
	1.61	3.4	5
	1.65	3.6	5
	1.69	3.69	5.73
	1.57	3.4	5.5
	1.66	3.68	5.45	Watch
	1.64	3.45	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.5)	3.53 ↓ (3.9)	5.44 ↓ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
56.6%

Draw
26.3%

Tokushima Vortis
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

24.1%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.6%

23.3%

13%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Machida Zelvia's form might have worsened.

Tokushima Vortis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokushima Vortis than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
73.7%	5.3%	21.1%

Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 14 - 73.7%). Tokushima will win (votes: 4 - 21.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 5.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Machida Zelvia: 53.9% – 93.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Popp W. (G) 43. Suzuki J. 14. Jang M. 4. Ikeda J. 22. Onaga H. 39. Vasquez B. 33. Matsui R. 16. Uno Z. 10. Takahashi D. 11. Erik 25. Fujio S.	1. Suarez J. (G) 26. Mori K. 3. Ishio R. 13. Hasegawa Y. 18. Elsinho 7. Shirai E. 24. Nishiya K. 20. Kodama S. 10. Sugimoto T. 9. Mori K. 8. Kakitani Y.
Substitutes
7. Araki S. 15. Duke M. 34. Fujiwara Y. 42. Fukui K. (G) 30. Nakashima Y. 9. Numata T. 18. Shimoda H.	23. Hyon R. 22. Quezada L. 15. Tanahashi A. 21. Tanaka H. (G) 30. Tsuboi K. 6. Uchida K. 16. Watari D.
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Labaien B.

Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League and 20).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Machida Zelvia won 0.

Machida Zelvia is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Tokushima is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Machida Zelvia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Machida Zelvia is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Machida Zelvia won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 10-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Machida Zelvia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 2-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J2 League
22.07.23	Machida Zelvia - JEF United Chiba	1:3 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
12.07.23	Yokohama F. Marinos - Machida Zelvia	1:4 ✺
Japan J2 League
09.07.23	Machida Zelvia - Tokyo Verdy	2:2 ✺
05.07.23	Oita Trinita - Machida Zelvia	0:3 ✺
01.07.23	Machida Zelvia - Omiya Ardija	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LWTWW
- Tokushima Vortis
Japan J2 League
22.07.23	Tokushima Vortis - Ventforet Kofu	1:2 ✺
15.07.23	Tokyo Verdy - Tokushima Vortis	0:0 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
12.07.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Tokushima Vortis	2:0 ✺
Japan J2 League
09.07.23	Tokushima Vortis - Fagiano Okayama	1:1 ✺
05.07.23	Mito HollyHock - Tokushima Vortis	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
28.05.23	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	2:1
01.10.22	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	3:2
01.05.22	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:2
25.11.20	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	3:0
12.08.20	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:1
21.07.19	Machida Zelvia - Tokushima Vortis	0:3
08.06.19	Tokushima Vortis - Machida Zelvia	1:0

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