Match Info

J1 League - Round 4

Date: 27 February 2026, Friday

Location: Machida GION Stadium (Machida)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan


	Machida Zelvia		JEF United Chiba

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.9	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.6	4.45	Watch
	1.75	3.8	5.01
	1.75	3.76	4.66	Watch
	1.7	3.5	4.6
	1.71	3.7	4.71	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↑ (1.47)	3.71 ↓ (4.2)	4.7 ↓ (7.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Machida Zelvia
54.7%

Draw
25.3%

JEF United Chiba
20%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

22.5%

13.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Machida Zelvia's form might have worsened.

JEF United Chiba has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting JEF United Chiba's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	8.3%	8.3%

Machida Zelvia - JEF United Chiba Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Machida Zelvia will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tani K. (G) 3. Shoji G. (C) 50. Okamura D. 19. Nakayama Y. 88. Nakamura H. 23. Shirasaki R. 31. Lavi N. 26. Hayashi K. 27. Erik 7. Soma Y. 99. Yengi T.	35. Wakahara T. (G) 2. Takahashi I. 13. Suzuki D. (C) 28. Kawano T. 67. Hidaka M. 42. Issaka Z. 15. Mae T. 6. Eduardo 8. Tsukui T. 20. Ishikawa D. 10. Carlinhos Junior
Substitutes
5. Dresevic I. 9. Fujio S. 49. Kuwayama K. 16. Mae H. 11. Masuyama A. 13. Morita T. (G) 10. Na Sang-Ho 20. Nishimura T. 18. Shimoda H.	32. Amagasa T. 9. Goya H. 37. Himeno M. 33. Igari Y. 27. Iwai T. 5. Kobayashi Y. 3. Kuboniwa R. 23. Suzuki R. (G) 11. Yonekura K.
Coaches
Kuroda G.	Kobayashi Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Soma Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Okamura D. 🟨,
59', 2 - 0, Erik ⚽,
64', 2 - 1, Ishikawa D. ⚽, Issaka Z. (A),
65', Issaka Z. ↓, Himeno M. ↑,
65', Carlinhos Junior ↓, Goya H. ↑,
66', Eduardo ↓, Igari Y. ↑,
70', Yengi T. ↓, Na Sang-Ho ↑,
79', Tsukui T. ↓, Yonekura K. ↑,
79', Lavi N. ↓, Mae H. ↑,
80', Erik ↓, Fujio S. ↑,
87', Igari Y. 🟨,
90+2', Nakamura H. 🟨,
90+4', Shirasaki R. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
90+4', Nakamura H. ↓, Masuyama A. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 2.

Machida Zelvia is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Machida Zelvia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Machida Zelvia is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Mochizuki H. (Injury) Vasquez B. (Injury)

We predict that Machida Zelvia will win today's game, with odds of 1.64.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 19:24. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 1:1.9).

Outrights of Japan J1 League for now

Chiba: 0.52%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Machida	4	3	1	0	13:3	10	10
20	Chiba	4	0	0	4	2:13	-11	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Machida Zelvia
Japan J1 League
21.02.26	Tokyo Verdy - Machida Zelvia	3:2 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	Machida Zelvia - Chengdu Rongcheng	3:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
14.02.26	Machida Zelvia - Mito HollyHock	3:2 penalties ✺
AFC Champions League
10.02.26	Shanghai Shenhua - Machida Zelvia	0:2 ✺
Japan J1 League
06.02.26	Yokohama F. Marinos - Machida Zelvia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LWWWW
- JEF United Chiba
Japan J1 League
22.02.26	Mito HollyHock - JEF United Chiba	2:1 penalties ✺
14.02.26	JEF United Chiba - Kawasaki Frontale	0:1 penalties ✺
06.02.26	JEF United Chiba - Urawa Red Diamonds	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
31.01.26	Kashiwa Reysol - JEF United Chiba	2:1 ✺
Japan J2 League
12.12.25	JEF United Chiba - Tokushima Vortis	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
22.07.23	Machida Zelvia - JEF United Chiba	1:3
03.06.23	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	0:2
14.08.22	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	1:2
03.04.22	Machida Zelvia - JEF United Chiba	1:1
10.10.21	Machida Zelvia - JEF United Chiba	0:1
23.05.21	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	1:1
17.10.20	JEF United Chiba - Machida Zelvia	0:0

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