Match Info

JAPAN: J2 LEAGUE - ROUND 24

Date: 5 July 2023, Wednesday

Location: Showa Denko Dome (Oita)


	Oita Trinita		Machida Zelvia

	1	X	2
	3.6	2.9	2.3	Watch
	3.2	2.85	2.2
	3.3	3.15	2.2
	3.57	3.03	2.36
	3.1	2.8	2.25
	3.48	2.98	2.3	Watch
	3.3	2.95	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↑ (2.1)	2.95 ↓ (3.2)	2.27 ↓ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Oita Trinita
27.6%

Draw
31.5%

Machida Zelvia
40.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.1%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

29.5%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Oita Trinita has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Oita Trinita's form might have worsened.

Machida Zelvia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Machida Zelvia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oita Trinita than the current prediction. (+17.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Oita Trinita, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (-13.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	46.7%	26.7%

Oita Trinita - Machida Zelvia Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Oita Trinita will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 4 - 26.7%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 46.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Nishikawa K. (G) 19. Ueebisu K. 25. Ando T. 3. Derlan 17. Takahata K. 27. Matsuo Y. 10. Nomura N. 14. Ikeda R. 11. Watanabe A. 5. Nakagawa H. 13. Isa K.	23. Popp W. (G) 2. Okuyama M. 14. Jang M. 34. Fujiwara Y. 22. Onaga H. 27. Hirakawa Y. 33. Matsui R. 18. Shimoda H. 41. Yasui T. 15. Duke M. 11. Erik
Substitutes
22. Arai Y. (G) 18. Fujimoto K. 49. Haneda K. 20. Nagasawa S. 28. Nodake J. 9. Samuel 6. Yumiba M.	7. Araki S. 25. Fujio S. 42. Fukui K. (G) 26. Gutierrez C. 19. Inaba S. 30. Nakashima Y. 9. Numata T.
Coaches
Shimotaira T.	Kuroda G.

Preview

The most interesting match of the day. Two teams from the very top of the board will meet (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ J2 League (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Oita Trinita won 2.

Recent matches Oita Trinita is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Machida Zelvia is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Machida Zelvia will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Oita Trinita won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 19-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Oita Trinita won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 8-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Oita Trinita
Japan J2 League
01.07.23	Júbilo Iwata - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
24.06.23	JEF United Chiba - Oita Trinita	1:1 ✺
17.06.23	Oita Trinita - Fagiano Okayama	1:0 ✺
11.06.23	Thespakusatsu Gunma - Oita Trinita	0:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.06.23	Oita Trinita - Verspah Oita	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TTWWL
- Machida Zelvia
Japan J2 League
01.07.23	Machida Zelvia - Omiya Ardija	3:2 ✺
24.06.23	Mito HollyHock - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
18.06.23	Tochigi - Machida Zelvia	1:1 ✺
11.06.23	Machida Zelvia - V-Varen Nagasaki	4:1 ✺
Japan Emperors Cup
07.06.23	Zweigen Kanazawa - Machida Zelvia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J2 League
16.04.23	Machida Zelvia - Oita Trinita	3:1
06.08.22	Machida Zelvia - Oita Trinita	1:1
05.06.22	Oita Trinita - Machida Zelvia	3:1
14.10.18	Machida Zelvia - Oita Trinita	3:2
28.04.18	Oita Trinita - Machida Zelvia	4:3
11.08.17	Oita Trinita - Machida Zelvia	1:3
Japan Emperors Cup
21.06.17	Machida Zelvia - Oita Trinita	2:4

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