Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 21

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Ittrich P. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz		Augsburg

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.7	3.8	Watch
	2.05	3.5	3.5
	1.98	3.55	3.7	Watch
	2	3.75	4.01
	1.93	3.66	3.92	Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.7
	1.98	3.77	3.82	Watch
	1.92	3.6	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2)	3.6 ↓ (3.62)	3.81 ↑ (3.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
48.5%

Draw
26.4%

Augsburg
25%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.8%

26%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Augsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Augsburg than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72%	24%	4%

Mainz - Augsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 18 - 72%). Augsburg will win (votes: 1 - 4%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 24%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 54.4% – 89.6%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 4. Posch S. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 21. da Costa D. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 10. Amiri N. 26. Silas 20. Tietz P.	1. Dahmen F. (G) 34. Arthur Chaves 31. Schlotterbeck K. 40. Banks N. 27. Wolf M. 4. Massengo H. 8. Rexhbecaj E. 19. Fellhauer R. 36. Komur M. 20. Claude-Maurice A. 38. Gregoritsch M.
Substitutes
23. Becker S. 14. Boving W. 15. Maloney L. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N.	9. Essende S. 11. Gharbi I. 17. Jakic K. 30. Kade A. 22. Labrovic N. (G) 3. Pedersen M. 21. Ribeiro R. 32. Rieder F. 16. Zesiger C.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Baum M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Banks N. ↓, Zesiger C. ↑,
57', Gregoritsch M. ↓, Gharbi I. ↑,
57', Rexhbecaj E. ↓, Jakic K. ↑,
57', Wolf M. ↓, Kade A. ↑,
60', Claude-Maurice A. 🟨,
63', Silas ↓, Becker S. ↑,
79', Kade A. 🟨,
80', 2 - 0, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
81', Amiri N. 🟨,
81', Fellhauer R. ↓, Rieder F. ↑,
81', Kohr D. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
82', Widmer S. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
82', Amiri N. ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
88', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90+2', Becker S. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3.

Mainz is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Augsburg has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Mainz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Injury) Kawasaki S. (Injury) Leitsch M. (Injury) Sieb A. (Inactive) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Augsburg: Giannoulis D. (Thigh Injury) Gouweleeuw J. (Knee Injury) Matsima C. (Muscle Injury) Ogundu U. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Augsburg: Jakic K. (Calf Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 31:30. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.4:0.9).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29% Augsburg: 0.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11:6	5	7
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 47.51%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2 ✺
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Köln - Mainz	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.6 WWLWT
- FC Augsburg
German Bundesliga
31.01.26	Augsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Bayern Munich - Augsburg	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	Augsburg - Freiburg	2:2 ✺
15.01.26	Augsburg - Union Berlin	1:1 ✺
11.01.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Augsburg	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 40.5 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
20.09.25	Augsburg - Mainz	1:4
08.02.25	Mainz - Augsburg	0:0
20.09.24	Augsburg - Mainz	2:3
17.02.24	Mainz - Augsburg	1:0
23.09.23	Augsburg - Mainz	2:1
11.02.23	Mainz - Augsburg	3:1
20.08.22	Augsburg - Mainz	1:2

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