Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 19

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Siebert D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Startimes Sports Focus
Albania	Tring Sport 6
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect
Bulgaria	Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 8
Denmark	See, Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Hong-kong	M Plus Live
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 4, DAZN / App
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Thailand	beIN Connect
Turkey	S Sport+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Mainz		Wolfsburg

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.4	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3.6	2.87
	2.32	3.35	3.05	Watch
	2.38	3.46	3.21
	2.32	3.47	3.05	Watch
	2.25	3.2	3
	2.34	3.47	3.16	Watch
	2.36	3.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.35)	3.42 ↓ (3.53)	3.07 ↑ (2.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mainz
41.1%

Draw
27.8%

Wolfsburg
31%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.5%

26.9%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

26.5%

32.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Wolfsburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

The ML Model estimate for Mainz aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Wolfsburg than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
48.1%	18.5%	33.3%

Mainz - Wolfsburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 13 - 48.1%). Wolfsburg will win (votes: 9 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 18.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 29.3% – 66.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 3 - 50%). Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Mainz (1.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 6 - 85.7%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Wolfsburg (2.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 4 - 50%). Wolfsburg (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 4. Posch S. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 21. da Costa D. 6. Sano K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 17. Hollerbach B. 20. Tietz P.	1. Grabara K. (G) 26. Kumbedi S. 3. Vavro D. 15. Jenz M. 25. Zehnter A. 5. Vini Souza 31. Gerhardt Y. (C) 39. Wimmer P. 24. Eriksen C. 9. Amoura M. 17. Pejcinovic D.
Substitutes
10. Amiri N. 14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 2. Mwene P. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 26. Silas 44. Weiper N.	22. Angely M. 41. Burger J. 11. Daghim A. 2. Fischer K. 19. Lindstrom J. 10. Majer L. 29. Muller M. (G) 7. Shiogai K. 32. Svanberg M.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Bauer D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, Amoura M. ⚽, Kumbedi S. (A),
22', Tietz P. (Penalty Awarded),
33', Posch S. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
60', Wimmer P. 🟨,
65', Nebel P. ↓, Amiri N. ↑,
65', da Costa D. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
66', Amoura M. ↓, Daghim A. ↑,
68', 1 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Amiri N. (A),
70', Vini Souza 🟨,
73', 2 - 1, Bell S. ⚽, Hollerbach B. (A),
75', Wimmer P. ↓, Lindstrom J. ↑,
75', Vini Souza ↓, Majer L. ↑,
83', 3 - 1, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
84', Eriksen C. ↓, Shiogai K. ↑,
84', Gerhardt Y. ↓, Svanberg M. ↑,
86', Kohr D. 🟨,
90', Hollerbach B. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90', Tietz P. ↓, Silas ↑,
90+2', Bell S. 🟨,
90+6', Lee Jae-Sung ↓, Boving W. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There will not play in Wolfsburg: Arnold M. (Yellow Cards) Dardai B. (Knee Injury) Maehle J. (Shoulder Injury) Rogerio (Muscle Injury) Wind J. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Amiri N. (Illness) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Hollerbach B. (Illness) Leitsch M. (Injury) Veratschnig N. (Injury) Weiper N. (Illness)

There are questionable in Wolfsburg: Seelt J. (Illness)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 3 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 20:36. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 0.9:1.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Mainz - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 40.48%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	Köln - Mainz	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Mainz - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWTTW
- VfL Wolfsburg
German Bundesliga
17.01.26	Wolfsburg - Heidenheim	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Wolfsburg - St. Pauli	2:1 ✺
11.01.26	Bayern Munich - Wolfsburg	8:1 ✺
20.12.25	Wolfsburg - Freiburg	3:4 ✺
13.12.25	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Wolfsburg	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
31.08.25	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:1
19.04.25	Mainz - Wolfsburg	2:2
08.12.24	Wolfsburg - Mainz	4:3
18.05.24	Wolfsburg - Mainz	1:3
13.01.24	Mainz - Wolfsburg	1:1
30.04.23	Wolfsburg - Mainz	3:0
05.11.22	Mainz - Wolfsburg	0:3

Upcoming Matches