Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 16

Date: 10 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion An der Alten Försterei (Berlin)

Referee: Dankert B. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Union Berlin		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.5	Watch
	2.15	3.25	3.5
	2.18	3.2	3.55	Watch
	2.25	3.25	3.35
	2.16	3.2	3.68	Watch
	2.15	3	3.5	Watch
	2.29	3.25	3.7	Watch
	2.2	3.14	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (2.13)	3.19 ↓ (3.28)	3.55 ↓ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Union Berlin
43.2%

Draw
29.9%

Mainz
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.6%

29%

26.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

29.9%

25.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.2%	7.5%	13.2%

Union Berlin - Mainz Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Union Berlin (1.49) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Mainz (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Union Berlin (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Union Berlin will win (42 of 52 users predict this - 80.77%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.06% – 91.48%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Union Berlin will win (16 of 20 users predict this - 80%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 23 Selected Experts predict this event. Union Berlin (votes: 18 - 78.3%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 13%). Tie (votes: 2 - 8.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ronnow F. (G) 5. Doekhi D. 14. Querfeld L. 4. Leite D. 19. Haberer J. 8. Khedira R. (C) 6. Kemlein A. 39. Kohn D. 7. Burke O. 9. Burcu L. 23. Ilic A.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 22. Veratschnig N. 17. Hollerbach B. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
10. Ansah I. 11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 18. Juranovic J. 33. Kral A. 27. Ljubicic M. 34. Nsoki S. 31. Raab M. (G) 13. Schafer A. 28. Trimmel C.	14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 8. Nebel P. 9. Nordin A. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Baumgart S.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Leite D. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Amiri N. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
57', Doekhi D. 🟨,
65', Kemlein A. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
65', Burcu L. ↓, Ansah I. ↑,
69', 0 - 2, Hollerbach B. ⚽, Veratschnig N. (A),
71', Haberer J. ↓, Trimmel C. ↑,
71', Burke O. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
77', 1 - 2, Jeong Woo-Yeong ⚽, Kohn D. (A),
78', Leite D. ↓, Ljubicic M. ↑,
78', Amiri N. ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
78', Hollerbach B. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
85', Tietz P. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
86', 2 - 2, Doekhi D. ⚽, Kohn D. (A),

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Union Berlin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Union Berlin is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Union Berlin: Bogdanov D. (Knock) Rothe T. (Injury) Skarke T. (Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Union Berlin won 7 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 23:11. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Union Berlin won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:5. (average 2.7:0.8).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29% Union Berlin: 0.17%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4:17	-13	1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Union Berlin
Club Friendly
05.01.26	Erzgebirge Aue - Union Berlin	1:2 ✺
German Bundesliga
20.12.25	Köln - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
12.12.25	Union Berlin - RB Leipzig	3:1 ✺
06.12.25	Wolfsburg - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
German DFB Pokal
03.12.25	Union Berlin - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WWWLL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Mainz - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Lech Poznań - Mainz	1:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
05.12.25	Mainz - Borussia Mönchengladbach	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
19.01.25	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:1
24.08.24	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:1
07.02.24	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:1
20.08.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	4:1
04.02.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:1
14.08.22	Mainz - Union Berlin	0:0
26.02.22	Union Berlin - Mainz	3:1

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