Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	15:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	11:30	Disney+
Armenia	18:30	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Australia	01:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Bulgaria	16:30	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	11:30	Disney+
China	22:30	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	09:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 5
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 5
Hong Kong	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:30	Arena 4
Iceland	14:30	Viaplay
Japan	23:30	DAZN Japan
Laos	21:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	08:30	Sky Sport
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	03:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport+
Pakistan	19:30	Tapmad
Peru	09:30	Disney+
Philippines	22:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	17:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	17:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	22:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Sport TV2
South Korea	23:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	17:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	11:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	10:30	Disney+
Vietnam	21:30	TV 360
International	14:30	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.75	5.5	Watch
	1.55	4.5	5.25
	1.55	4.7	5.4	Watch
	1.55	4.75	5.67
	1.56	4.63	5.31	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5
	1.58	4.82	5.33	Watch
	1.54	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.54)	4.61 ↓ (4.66)	5.37 (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
61.5%

Draw
20.7%

Mainz
17.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

61.8%

20.4%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.6%

20.3%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	9.7%	9.7%

RB Leipzig - Mainz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (1.17) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.69% – 94.31%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 70%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 5. Bitshiabu E. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 7. Nusa A. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 11. Harder C.	33. Batz D. (G) 4. Posch S. 16. Bell S. 48. Potulski K. 21. da Costa D. 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 30. Widmer S. (C) 20. Tietz P. 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)	14. Boving W. 42. Gleiber D. 15. Maloney L. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 26. Silas 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Werner O.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Hollerbach B. ↓, Silas ↑,
38', Bell S. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Harder C. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
45+3', Posch S. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 1, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 1 - 2, Silas ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
59', Bitshiabu E. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
59', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
72', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
72', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
82', Widmer S. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
82', Silas ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
82', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
86', Seiwald N. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
90+3', Potulski K. 🟨,
90+6', Weiper N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, RB Leipzig is a strong favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Yellow Cards) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Lukeba C. (Knee Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Kohr D. (Yellow Cards) Leitsch M. (Injury) Veratschnig N. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Kawasaki S. (Injury) Nordin A. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 42:26. (average 2.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:11. (average 2.8:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	RB Leipzig	7	4	0	3	20:11	9	12
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16:13	3	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.15% Mainz: 0.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Heidenheim - RB Leipzig	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWLWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Köln - Mainz	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1
01.03.25	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2
19.10.24	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:2
30.03.24	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:0
04.11.23	Mainz - RB Leipzig	2:0
01.04.23	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:3
08.10.22	Mainz - RB Leipzig	1:1

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