Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 20

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Red Bull Arena (Leipzig)

Referee: Schlager D. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Arena
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Bulgaria	Nova Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 5
Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Germany	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 5
Hong-kong	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	Sky Sport
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport+
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	DAZN / App
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 6
Singapore	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Sport TV2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX, True ID, True Premier Football 4
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	RB Leipzig		Mainz

	1	X	2
	1.55	4.75	5.5	Watch
	1.55	4.5	5.25
	1.55	4.7	5.4	Watch
	1.55	4.75	5.67
	1.56	4.63	5.31	Watch
	1.53	4.2	5
	1.58	4.82	5.33	Watch
	1.54	4.5	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.54)	4.61 ↓ (4.66)	5.37 (5.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

RB Leipzig
61.5%

Draw
20.7%

Mainz
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.8%

20.4%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.4%

19.9%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

RB Leipzig has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for RB Leipzig than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80.6%	9.7%	9.7%

RB Leipzig - Mainz Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Mainz (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - RB Leipzig (1.17) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: RB Leipzig will win (24 of 30 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.69% – 94.31%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. RB Leipzig (votes: 7 - 70%). Mainz (votes: 3 - 30%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gulacsi P. (G) 17. Baku R. 4. Orban W. 5. Bitshiabu E. 22. Raum D. (C) 24. Schlager X. 13. Seiwald N. 7. Nusa A. 49. Diomande Y. 40. Romulo Cardoso 11. Harder C.	33. Batz D. (G) 4. Posch S. 16. Bell S. 48. Potulski K. 21. da Costa D. 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 30. Widmer S. (C) 20. Tietz P. 17. Hollerbach B.
Substitutes
9. Bakayoko J. 6. Banzuzi E. 35. Finkgrafe M. 27. Gomis T. 39. Henrichs B. 16. Klostermann L. 33. Maksimovic A. 19. Nedeljkovic K. 26. Vandevoordt M. (G)	14. Boving W. 42. Gleiber D. 15. Maloney L. 2. Mwene P. 8. Nebel P. 9. Nordin A. 1. Riess L. (G) 26. Silas 44. Weiper N.
Coaches
Werner O.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
14', Hollerbach B. ↓, Silas ↑,
38', Bell S. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Harder C. ⚽, Nusa A. (A),
45+3', Posch S. 🟨,
45+6', 1 - 1, Amiri N. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', 1 - 2, Silas ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
59', Bitshiabu E. ↓, Banzuzi E. ↑,
59', Baku R. ↓, Henrichs B. ↑,
72', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
72', Romulo Cardoso ↓, Gomis T. ↑,
82', Widmer S. ↓, Mwene P. ↑,
82', Silas ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
82', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
86', Seiwald N. ↓, Bakayoko J. ↑,
90+3', Potulski K. 🟨,
90+6', Weiper N. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

RB Leipzig may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, RB Leipzig is a strong favorite.

There will not play in RB Leipzig: Baumgartner C. (Yellow Cards) Gebel V. (Knee Injury) Lukeba C. (Knee Injury) Ouedraogo A. (Knee Injury) Sani S. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Kohr D. (Yellow Cards) Leitsch M. (Injury) Veratschnig N. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Kawasaki S. (Injury) Nordin A. (Injury)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, RB Leipzig won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 42:26. (average 2.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, RB Leipzig won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:11. (average 2.8:1.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

RB Leipzig: 2.84% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9:5	4	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RB Leipzig
German Bundesliga
27.01.26	St. Pauli - RB Leipzig	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Heidenheim - RB Leipzig	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	RB Leipzig - Bayern Munich	1:5 ✺
14.01.26	RB Leipzig - Freiburg	2:0 ✺
20.12.25	RB Leipzig - Bayer Leverkusen	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TWLWL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
24.01.26	Mainz - Wolfsburg	3:1 ✺
17.01.26	Köln - Mainz	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Mainz - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WLWTT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
13.09.25	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:1
01.03.25	RB Leipzig - Mainz	1:2
19.10.24	Mainz - RB Leipzig	0:2
30.03.24	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:0
04.11.23	Mainz - RB Leipzig	2:0
01.04.23	RB Leipzig - Mainz	0:3
08.10.22	Mainz - RB Leipzig	1:1

Upcoming Matches