Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 17

Date: 13 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Jablonski S. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz		Heidenheim

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.8	4.2	Watch
	1.82	3.7	4.25	Watch
	1.8	3.78	4.39	Watch
	1.75	3.5	4.4	Watch
	1.85	3.88	4.62	Watch
	1.81	3.6	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↑ (1.71)	3.71 ↑ (3.64)	4.39 ↓ (5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
52.7%

Draw
25.6%

Heidenheim
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.2%

25.9%

18.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

25%

18.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

Heidenheim has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heidenheim than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
67.3%	17.3%	15.4%

Mainz - Heidenheim Predictions

Users Predictions: 50 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 34 - 68%). Heidenheim will win (votes: 8 - 16%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 16%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 55.1% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 22 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Heidenheim (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 4.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Heidenheim (2.07) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Mainz (1.22) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Heidenheim (3.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 26 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 17 - 65.4%). Heidenheim (votes: 8 - 30.8%). Tie (votes: 1 - 3.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 16. Bell S. 31. Kohr D. 30. Widmer S. (C) 10. Amiri N. 6. Sano K. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 22. Veratschnig N. 20. Tietz P. 11. Sieb A.	41. Ramaj D. (G) 23. Traore O. H. 6. Mainka P. (C) 5. Gimber B. 19. Fohrenbach J. 3. Schoppner J. 16. Niehues J. 30. Dorsch N. 22. Ibrahimovic A. 29. Kaufmann M. 18. Pieringer M.
Substitutes
37. Bobzien B. 14. Boving W. 24. Kawasaki S. 15. Maloney L. 36. Moreno Fell F. 8. Nebel P. 9. Nordin A. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G)	21. Beck A. 2. Busch M. 31. Conteh S. 40. Feller F. (G) 17. Honsak M. 20. Kerber L. 9. Schimmer S. 4. Siersleben T. 38. Wagner Y.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Schmidt F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Widmer S. ⚽, Lee Jae-Sung (A),
34', Veratschnig N. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
45', Kohr D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Schoppner J. ↓, Conteh S. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Amiri N. ⚽, Tietz P. (A),
54', Pieringer M. 🟨,
59', Kaufmann M. ↓, Schimmer S. ↑,
59', Pieringer M. ↓, Beck A. ↑,
59', Sieb A. ↓, Nebel P. ↑,
60', 2 - 1, Schimmer S. ⚽,
75', Niehues J. ↓, Honsak M. ↑,
77', Gimber B. 🟨,
82', Fohrenbach J. ↓, Wagner Y. ↑,
88', Schmidt F. 🟨,
90', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
90', Tietz P. ↓, Nordin A. ↑,
90+4', Widmer S. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Mainz is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Mwene P. (Muscle Injury) Silas (Ankle Injury) Weiper N. (Illness)

There will not play in Heidenheim: Behrens H. (Injury) Paqarada L. (Knee Injury) Zivzivadze B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Caci A. (Thigh Injury) Hanche-Olsen A. (Injury) Leitsch M. (Muscle Injury) Zentner R. (Groin Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 0.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
18.12.25	Mainz - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
14.12.25	Bayern Munich - Mainz	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
11.12.25	Lech Poznań - Mainz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.8 TTWTT
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Heidenheim - Köln	2:2 ✺
21.12.25	Heidenheim - Bayern Munich	0:4 ✺
13.12.25	St. Pauli - Heidenheim	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Heidenheim - Freiburg	2:1 ✺
29.11.25	Union Berlin - Heidenheim	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 TLLWW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
16.02.25	Heidenheim - Mainz	0:2
28.09.24	Mainz - Heidenheim	0:2
05.05.24	Heidenheim - Mainz	1:1
16.12.23	Mainz - Heidenheim	0:1

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