Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
Albania	19:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	14:30	Disney+
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	03:30	beIN Connect
Austria	19:30	DAZN
Bulgaria	20:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	13:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	13:30	Disney+
Colombia	12:30	Disney+
Croatia	19:30	SportKlub 5
Czech Republic	19:30	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	19:30	Viaplay
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7, beIN Sports MAX 8, Free
Germany	19:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch
Greece	20:30	Nova Sports Start
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Iceland	17:30	Viaplay
India	23:00	Sony LIV, Vision+
Indonesia	00:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Italy	19:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 257
Japan	02:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	19:30	Arena Premium 4
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Mexico	11:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	01:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	19:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	19:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Peru	12:30	Disney+
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	19:30	Eleven Sports 3, Polsat Sport 3
Portugal	18:30	DAZN / App
Romania	20:30	Prima Sport PPV 2
Russia	20:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	20:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	19:30	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	01:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	19:30	Nova Sport 3, Voyo
Slovenia	19:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	19:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	19:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	19:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	20:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 3
Ukraine	20:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports
United Kingdom	18:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	14:30	Disney+
Usa	13:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:30	Disney+
Vietnam	00:30	TV 360
International	17:30	Onefootball


	Mainz		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.9	4.2
	1.7	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.77	4.09	4.7
	1.74	3.95	4.44	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.4
	1.75	4.17	4.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)	3.98 ↑ (3.73)	4.55 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
55.1%

Draw
24%

Union Berlin
21%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

51.8%

25.2%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

23.8%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mainz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Union Berlin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.9%	20%	11.1%

Mainz - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 31 - 68.9%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 5 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 55.4% – 82.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Union Berlin (3.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 50%). Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.	25. Klaus C. (G) 28. Trimmel C. (C) 5. Doekhi D. 4. Leite D. 15. Rothe T. 8. Khedira R. 6. Kemlein A. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I. 9. Burcu L. 23. Ilic A.
Substitutes
33. Batz D. (G) 24. Kawasaki S. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.	11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 18. Juranovic J. 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 34. Nsoki S. 14. Querfeld L. 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T. 48. Wisbereit T. (G)
Coaches
Fischer U.	Eta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Caci A. 🟨,
16', da Costa D. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Ilic A. ⚽, Kemlein A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 1 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
60', Burcu L. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
60', Rothe T. ↓, Kohn D. ↑,
60', Ansah I. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
70', Caci A. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
70', Nebel P. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
75', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
80', Kohn D. 🟨,
81', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
81', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
81', Trimmel C. ↓, Juranovic J. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Burke O. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),
89', Burke O. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 3, Juranovic J. ⚽, Skarke T. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mainz is the team to beat.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Preu D. (Injury) Raab M. (Hand Injury) Ronnow F. (Muscle Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Lee Jae-Sung (Toe Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mainz	8	3	1	4	17:17	0	10
17	Union Berlin	7	1	3	3	6:18	-12	6

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.2% Union Berlin: 0.13%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	St. Pauli - Mainz	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Strasbourg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTLL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Union Berlin - Köln	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2
19.01.25	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:1
24.08.24	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:1
07.02.24	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:1
20.08.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	4:1
04.02.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:1
14.08.22	Mainz - Union Berlin	0:0

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