Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 33

Date: 10 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Exner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Mainz		Union Berlin

	1	X	2
	1.7	4	4.5	Watch
	1.77	3.9	4.2
	1.7	3.95	4.7	Watch
	1.77	4.09	4.7
	1.74	3.95	4.44	Watch
	1.7	3.8	4.4
	1.75	4.17	4.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↓ (1.82)	3.98 ↑ (3.73)	4.55 ↑ (4.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
55.1%

Draw
24%

Union Berlin
21%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

25.2%

22.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

21.2%

27.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Union Berlin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mainz that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Union Berlin than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Union Berlin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
68.9%	20%	11.1%

Mainz - Union Berlin Predictions

Users Predictions: 45 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 31 - 68.9%). Union Berlin will win (votes: 5 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 55.4% – 82.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Union Berlin (3.85) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 2 - 50%). Union Berlin (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Zentner R. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. 19. Caci A. 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. (C) 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.	25. Klaus C. (G) 28. Trimmel C. (C) 5. Doekhi D. 4. Leite D. 15. Rothe T. 8. Khedira R. 6. Kemlein A. 7. Burke O. 10. Ansah I. 9. Burcu L. 23. Ilic A.
Substitutes
33. Batz D. (G) 24. Kawasaki S. 7. Lee Jae-Sung 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.	11. Jeong Woo-Yeong 18. Juranovic J. 39. Kohn D. 33. Kral A. 34. Nsoki S. 14. Querfeld L. 13. Schafer A. 21. Skarke T. 48. Wisbereit T. (G)
Coaches
Fischer U.	Eta M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', Caci A. 🟨,
16', da Costa D. ↓, Potulski K. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Ilic A. ⚽, Kemlein A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 1 - 1, Becker S. ⚽, Nebel P. (A),
60', Burcu L. ↓, Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑,
60', Rothe T. ↓, Kohn D. ↑,
60', Ansah I. ↓, Schafer A. ↑,
70', Caci A. ↓, Veratschnig N. ↑,
70', Nebel P. ↓, Lee Jae-Sung ↑,
75', Lee Jae-Sung 🟨,
80', Kohn D. 🟨,
81', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
81', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
81', Trimmel C. ↓, Juranovic J. ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Burke O. ⚽, Ilic A. (A),
89', Burke O. ↓, Skarke T. ↑,
90+1', 1 - 3, Juranovic J. ⚽, Skarke T. (A),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Mainz is the team to beat.

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

There will not play in Union Berlin: Preu D. (Injury) Raab M. (Hand Injury) Ronnow F. (Muscle Injury) Skov R. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Mainz: Lee Jae-Sung (Toe Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1 match, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:25. (average 1:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.32% Union Berlin: 0.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mainz	5	2	1	2	13:10	3	7
16	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	5:17	-12	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
03.05.26	St. Pauli - Mainz	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Strasbourg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTLL
- Union Berlin
German Bundesliga
02.05.26	Union Berlin - Köln	2:2 ✺
24.04.26	RB Leipzig - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
18.04.26	Union Berlin - Wolfsburg	1:2 ✺
11.04.26	Heidenheim - Union Berlin	3:1 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TLLLT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
10.01.26	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:2
19.01.25	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:1
24.08.24	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:1
07.02.24	Mainz - Union Berlin	1:1
20.08.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	4:1
04.02.23	Union Berlin - Mainz	2:1
14.08.22	Mainz - Union Berlin	0:0

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