Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg)

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	St. Pauli		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.55
	2.88	3.25	2.52	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.63
	2.77	3.38	2.56	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.94	3.33	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.95)	3.27 ↑ (3.24)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
33.5%

Draw
29.1%

Mainz
37.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

29.2%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

30.1%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	28.6%	53.6%

St. Pauli - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Mainz will win (votes: 14 - 51.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 33.1% – 70.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 7. Irvine J. (C) 8. Smith E. 21. Ritzka L. 10. Sinani D. 16. Fujita J. 27. Hountondji A.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 20. Rasmussen M. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	16. Bell S. 19. Caci A. 24. Kawasaki S. 31. Kohr D. 15. Maloney L. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 27. Zentner R. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Becker S. (A),
40', 0 - 2, Mwene P. ⚽, Widmer S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
46', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
65', Smith E. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
65', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Batz D. 🟨,
72', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
76', Potulski K. ↓, Kohr D. ↑,
77', Widmer S. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
84', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
84', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
84', Irvine J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Ceesay A. ⚽, Kaars M. (A),
88', Mets K. 🟨,
90+1', Metcalfe C. 🟨,
90+4', Ceesay A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 10).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Pereira Lage M. (Knee Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Toe Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.32%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mainz	5	2	1	2	13:10	3	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	St. Pauli - Köln	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLTL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Strasbourg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Mainz - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0
22.02.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	2:0
05.10.24	St. Pauli - Mainz	0:3

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