Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 32

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Gerach T. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	Azam Sports 2, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Asia	—	MBC Action
Australia	23:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	DAZN
Bolivia	09:30	ESPN 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	15:30	Arena Sport 5P
Brazil	10:30	Caze TV
Bulgaria	16:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	09:30	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	08:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 1
Czech Republic	15:30	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	15:30	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Ecuador	08:30	ESPN 5
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	16:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free
Germany	15:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Hungary	15:30	Match 4
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	20:30	K-Vision
Italy	15:30	Sky Sport 253
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	15:30	Arena Premium 4
Laos	20:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Malta	15:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	07:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	21:30	Premier Sports 4
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	01:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	15:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	18:30	Tapmad
Paraguay	09:30	ESPN 5
Peru	08:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	15:30	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	14:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Prima Sport PPV 1
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Premium 4
Singapore	21:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	15:30	Nova Sport 6, Voyo
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	20:30	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, PPTV Sports
Turkey	16:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	16:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	14:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	20:30	TV 360
International	13:30	Onefootball


	St. Pauli		Mainz

	1	X	2
	2.88	3.25	2.5	Watch
	2.75	3.25	2.55
	2.88	3.25	2.52	Watch
	2.95	3.3	2.63
	2.77	3.38	2.56	Watch
	2.7	3.1	2.5
	2.94	3.33	2.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↓ (2.95)	3.27 ↑ (3.24)	2.55 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

St. Pauli
33.5%

Draw
29.1%

Mainz
37.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.1%

29.2%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

29.7%

37.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
17.9%	28.6%	53.6%

St. Pauli - Mainz Predictions

Users Predictions: 27 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 5 - 18.5%). Mainz will win (votes: 14 - 51.9%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 29.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 33.1% – 70.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Vasilj N. (G) 15. Ando T. 5. Wahl H. 3. Mets K. 11. Pyrka A. 7. Irvine J. (C) 8. Smith E. 21. Ritzka L. 10. Sinani D. 16. Fujita J. 27. Hountondji A.	33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 48. Potulski K. 30. Widmer S. (C) 8. Nebel P. 6. Sano K. 10. Amiri N. 2. Mwene P. 23. Becker S. 20. Tietz P.
Substitutes
9. Ceesay A. 25. Dzwigala A. 18. Hara T. 19. Kaars M. 24. Metcalfe C. 4. Nemeth D. 23. Oppie L. 20. Rasmussen M. 1. Voll B. A. (G)	16. Bell S. 19. Caci A. 24. Kawasaki S. 31. Kohr D. 15. Maloney L. 11. Sieb A. 22. Veratschnig N. 44. Weiper N. 27. Zentner R. (G)
Coaches
Blessin A.	Fischer U.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
6', 0 - 1, Tietz P. ⚽, Becker S. (A),
40', 0 - 2, Mwene P. ⚽, Widmer S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ritzka L. ↓, Dzwigala A. ↑,
46', Sinani D. ↓, Metcalfe C. ↑,
65', Smith E. ↓, Ceesay A. ↑,
65', Hountondji A. ↓, Kaars M. ↑,
68', Batz D. 🟨,
72', Becker S. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
76', Potulski K. ↓, Kohr D. ↑,
77', Widmer S. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
84', Amiri N. ↓, Maloney L. ↑,
84', Tietz P. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,
84', Irvine J. ↓, Rasmussen M. ↑,
87', 1 - 2, Ceesay A. ⚽, Kaars M. (A),
88', Mets K. 🟨,
90+1', Metcalfe C. 🟨,
90+4', Ceesay A. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation) and 10).

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Mainz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in St. Pauli: Jones R.J. (Ankle Injury) Pereira Lage M. (Knee Injury) Sands J. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Mainz: Dal M. (Knee Injury) Hollerbach B. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Lee Jae-Sung (Toe Injury) Leitsch M. (Thigh Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:5. (average 0:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, St. Pauli won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Mainz	8	3	1	4	17:17	0	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Mainz: 0.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC St. Pauli
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Heidenheim - St. Pauli	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	St. Pauli - Köln	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	St. Pauli - Bayern Munich	0:5 ✺
05.04.26	Union Berlin - St. Pauli	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LTLTL
- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
25.04.26	Mainz - Bayern Munich	3:4 ✺
19.04.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.04.26	Strasbourg - Mainz	4:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
12.04.26	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Mainz - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
21.12.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	0:0
22.02.25	Mainz - St. Pauli	2:0
05.10.24	St. Pauli - Mainz	0:3

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