Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	19:30	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	14:30	Disney+
Australia	03:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	19:30	DAZN
Bolivia	13:30	ESPN 5
Bosnia And Herzegovina	19:30	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	14:30	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	20:30	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	13:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	13:30	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	12:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	19:30	SportKlub 7
Czech Republic	19:30	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	19:30	Viaplay
Ecuador	12:30	ESPN 5
Finland	20:30	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	19:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	21:30	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	19:30	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	20:30	Nova Sports 3
Hong Kong	01:30	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	19:30	Arena 4
Iceland	17:30	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	23:00	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	00:30	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI
Italy	19:30	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
Japan	02:30	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	19:30	Arena Premium 3
Laos	00:30	beIN Connect
Malaysia	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	22:30	Medianet
Malta	19:30	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	11:30	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	01:30	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	19:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	05:30	beIN Connect
North Central America	—	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	19:30	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	22:30	Tapmad
Paraguay	13:30	ESPN 5
Peru	12:30	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	01:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	19:30	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	18:30	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	20:30	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go
Russia	20:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	20:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	19:30	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	01:30	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	19:30	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
Slovenia	19:30	Sport TV1
South Korea	02:30	Coupang Play
Spain	19:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	19:30	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	19:30	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	00:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	20:30	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	20:30	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United Kingdom	18:30	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	14:30	Disney+
Usa	13:30	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	13:30	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	00:30	TV 360
International	17:30	Onefootball


	Mainz		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.28	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.31	3.35	3.38
	2.26	3.35	3.27	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3	Watch
	2.36	3.35	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.11)	3.31 ↑ (3.07)	3.32 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
42.4%

Draw
28.8%

Freiburg
28.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45%

30.9%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

30.9%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	35.7%	7.1%

Mainz - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Freiburg will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 31.2% – 83%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Mainz (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. (C) 6. Sano K. 22. Veratschnig N. 24. Kawasaki S. 8. Nebel P. 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 22. Irie C. 9. Holer L. 7. Scherhant D. 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
10. Amiri N. 14. Boving W. 19. Caci A. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.	19. Beste J. 32. Grifo V. 27. Hofler N. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 26. Philipp M. 14. Suzuki Y. 29. Treu P.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Ogbus B. 🟨,
45+4', Eggestein M. 🟨,
45+4', Schuster J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ogbus B. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Holer L. ⚽, Ginter M. (A),
55', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
62', Kawasaki S. ↓, Amiri N. ↑,
62', Veratschnig N. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
64', Irie C. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
64', Kubler L. ↓, Treu P. ↑,
73', Holer L. 🟨,
74', Scherhant D. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
74', Mwene P. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
74', Nebel P. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
83', Ginter M. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
83', da Costa D. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

Mainz has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Freiburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Freiburg has had a series of home games.

Mainz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	7	4	1	2	16:9	7	13
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16:13	3	10

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.85% Mainz: 0.2%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Mainz - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Mainz - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWWWW
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0
15.03.25	Mainz - Freiburg	2:2
03.11.24	Freiburg - Mainz	0:0
21.04.24	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1
03.12.23	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1
19.03.23	Mainz - Freiburg	1:1
01.10.22	Freiburg - Mainz	2:1

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