Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 29

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Referee: Zwayer F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Bolivia	ESPN 5
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	Canal GOAT
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+, ESPN Premium
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 5
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 5, Oneplay
Denmark	Viaplay
Ecuador	ESPN 5
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 3 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	DAZN 1 Bar Deutsch, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport MIX
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX, Sooka
Maldives	Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Paraguay	ESPN 5
Peru	Disney+, ESPN 5
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 2, Polsat Sport Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 3, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovakia	Nova Sport 5, Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball


	Mainz		Freiburg

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.1	3.4	Watch
	2.1	3.4	3.5
	2.28	3.25	3.25	Watch
	2.31	3.35	3.38
	2.26	3.35	3.27	Watch
	2.2	3.4	3	Watch
	2.36	3.35	3.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.11)	3.31 ↑ (3.07)	3.32 ↓ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Mainz
42.4%

Draw
28.8%

Freiburg
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

30.9%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

30.8%

23.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Freiburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Freiburg than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	35.7%	7.1%

Mainz - Freiburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Mainz will win (votes: 8 - 57.1%). Freiburg will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 35.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mainz: 31.2% – 83%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Mainz (1.56) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mainz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Batz D. (G) 21. da Costa D. 4. Posch S. 31. Kohr D. (C) 6. Sano K. 22. Veratschnig N. 24. Kawasaki S. 8. Nebel P. 2. Mwene P. 20. Tietz P. 23. Becker S.	1. Atubolu N. (G) 17. Kubler L. 28. Ginter M. 43. Ogbus B. 30. Gunter C. (C) 8. Eggestein M. 44. Manzambi J. 22. Irie C. 9. Holer L. 7. Scherhant D. 31. Matanovic I.
Substitutes
10. Amiri N. 14. Boving W. 19. Caci A. 15. Maloney L. 48. Potulski K. 1. Riess L. (G) 11. Sieb A. 44. Weiper N. 30. Widmer S.	19. Beste J. 32. Grifo V. 27. Hofler N. 3. Lienhart P. 33. Makengo J. 21. Muller F. (G) 26. Philipp M. 14. Suzuki Y. 29. Treu P.
Coaches
Fischer U.	Schuster J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Ogbus B. 🟨,
45+4', Eggestein M. 🟨,
45+4', Schuster J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ogbus B. ↓, Lienhart P. ↑,
47', 0 - 1, Holer L. ⚽, Ginter M. (A),
55', Veratschnig N. 🟨,
62', Kawasaki S. ↓, Amiri N. ↑,
62', Veratschnig N. ↓, Widmer S. ↑,
64', Irie C. ↓, Beste J. ↑,
64', Kubler L. ↓, Treu P. ↑,
73', Holer L. 🟨,
74', Scherhant D. ↓, Grifo V. ↑,
74', Mwene P. ↓, Caci A. ↑,
74', Nebel P. ↓, Sieb A. ↑,
83', Ginter M. ↓, Makengo J. ↑,
83', da Costa D. ↓, Weiper N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 9 and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 0.

Mainz has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Freiburg has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Freiburg has had a series of home games.

Mainz might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 28:26. (average 1.4:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Mainz won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:10. (average 1.8:1).

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Freiburg: 0.78% Mainz: 0.29%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12:3	9	10
6	Mainz	4	2	1	1	10:6	4	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
UEFA Europa Conference League
09.04.26	Mainz - Strasbourg	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Hoffenheim - Mainz	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	2:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Mainz - Sigma Olomouc	2:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.9 WWWWW
- SC Freiburg
UEFA Europa League
09.04.26	Freiburg - Celta de Vigo	3:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
04.04.26	Freiburg - Bayern Munich	2:3 ✺
22.03.26	St. Pauli - Freiburg	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa League
19.03.26	Freiburg - Genk	5:1 ✺
German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Freiburg - Union Berlin	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
30.11.25	Freiburg - Mainz	4:0
15.03.25	Mainz - Freiburg	2:2
03.11.24	Freiburg - Mainz	0:0
21.04.24	Freiburg - Mainz	1:1
03.12.23	Mainz - Freiburg	0:1
19.03.23	Mainz - Freiburg	1:1
01.10.22	Freiburg - Mainz	2:1

Upcoming Matches