Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 7

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday ⏱️ In 2h 32m 📅 Remind Me

Location: Mewa Arena (Mainz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Badstubner F. (Ger)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Focus
Argentina	10:30	Disney+
Australia	00:30	beIN Connect
Austria	15:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Canada	09:30	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	10:30	Disney+
China	21:30	Migu
Colombia	08:30	Disney+
Croatia	15:30	SportKlub 12
Denmark	15:30	Viaplay
Estonia	16:30	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	—	Go3 Sport 1 Baltic
Finland	16:30	Viaplay
France	15:30	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 7
Germany	15:30	DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 3, WOW
Greece	16:30	Nova Sports 4
Hong Kong	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX, M Plus Live
Iceland	13:30	Viaplay
India	19:00	ZEE5
Japan	22:30	DAZN Japan
Lithuania	16:30	Go3 Extra Sports
Malaysia	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Mexico	07:30	FOX One
Netherlands	15:30	Viaplay
New Zealand	02:30	beIN Connect
Norway	15:30	Viaplay
Peru	08:30	Disney+
Philippines	21:30	beIN Connect, beIN SPORTS MAX
Portugal	14:30	DAZN / App
Romania	16:30	Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 5
Russia	16:30	Okko Sport
Saudi Arabia	16:30	MBC Shahid
Serbia	15:30	Arena Sport 8
Singapore	21:30	beIN SPORTS MAX
Slovenia	15:30	Sport TV3
South Korea	22:30	Coupang Play
Spain	15:30	DAZN Espana
Sweden	15:30	Viaplay
Switzerland	15:30	Sky Sport Bundesliga 3
Thailand	20:30	AIS PLAY
Uruguay	10:30	Disney+
Usa	09:30	Peacock
Venezuela	09:30	Disney+
International	13:30	OneFootball TV


	Mainz		Werder Bremen

	1	X	2
	1.73	4.00	4.50	Watch
	1.73	4.10	4.20
	1.68	4.00	4.40
	1.78	4.25	4.64
	1.77	4.33	3.99	Watch
	1.71	4.00	4.50
	1.80	4.35	4.35	Watch
	1.72	4.20	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↑ (1.69)	4.15 ↑ (4.15)	4.37 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mainz
55%

Draw
23.1%

Werder Bremen
21.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

55.8%

22.8%

21.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

22%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mainz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Werder Bremen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mainz than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Werder Bremen than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.3%	13%	8.7%

Mainz - Werder Bremen Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (1.76) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Mainz will win (18 of 23 users predict this - 78.26%).
Confidence interval (95%): 61.4% – 95.12%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Mainz will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Europa League League phase and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mainz won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Werder could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Mainz for this game.

Confirmed absences for Mainz: Kohr D. (Foot Injury) Silas (Broken shinbone).

Confirmed absences for Werder: Agu F. (Calf Injury) Alvero S. (Calf Injury) Musah S. (Muscle Injury) N'Diaye M. (Groin Injury) Njinmah J. (Thigh Injury) Stage J. (Muscle Injury) Stark N. (Muscle Injury) Topp K. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Mainz: Ruoppi O. (Knee Injury) Zentner R. (Hand Injury).

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Mainz has recorded 7 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 27:28 (averaging 1.4:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Mainz against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with 11:16 goals (averaging 1.1:1.6 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Mainz	6	3	1	2	14:10	4	10
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	12:12	0	9

Outrights of German Bundesliga for now

Werder Bremen: 0.44% Mainz: 0.23%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mainz 05
German Bundesliga
17.10.26	Schalke 04 - Mainz	0:1 ✺
10.10.26	Mainz - Bayer Leverkusen	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly
03.10.26	Waldhof Mannheim - Mainz	0:3
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Borussia Mönchengladbach - Mainz	3:4 ✺
12.09.26	Mainz - Eintracht Frankfurt	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWL
- Werder Bremen
German Bundesliga
17.10.26	Werder Bremen - Paderborn	2:2 ✺
09.10.26	Borussia Dortmund - Werder Bremen	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
02.10.26	Twente - Werder Bremen	7:0 ✺
German Bundesliga
19.09.26	Werder Bremen - Augsburg	3:2 ✺
12.09.26	Köln - Werder Bremen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 TTLWT

Latest Head to Head

German Bundesliga
15.03.26	Werder Bremen - Mainz	0:2
01.11.25	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:1
31.01.25	Werder Bremen - Mainz	1:0
15.09.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	1:2
03.02.24	Mainz - Werder Bremen	0:1
02.09.23	Werder Bremen - Mainz	4:0
08.04.23	Mainz - Werder Bremen	2:2

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