Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 17 September 2024, Tuesday

Location: Old Trafford (Manchester)

Referee: Ward G. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, StarTimes App, SuperSport Variety 2
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
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Canada	DAZN Canada
Croatia	Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
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Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 1 Baltic
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport 2
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 1
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	Viaplay
Indonesia	Vidio
Ireland	NOW
Israel	Sport 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	SKY NET Sports 5
Mexico	ESPN 2
Netherlands	Viaplay
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPN Caribbean
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV3+, Viaplay
Poland	Viaplay
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Sweden	Viaplay
Thailand	Thairath TV
Ukraine	Setanta Sports
United-kingdom	beIN Sports MENA English 2, NOW TV, Sky Go Extra, Sky Go, Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports+, Sky Ultra
Usa	Paramount+
World	Disney+, Setanta Sports 1 Eurasia


	Manchester United		Barnsley

	1	X	2
	1.09	10	21	Watch
	1.1	12	21
	1.1	10	34	Watch
	1.1	11.09	25.58
	1.1	10.51	22.98	Watch
	1.22	6	13
	1.09	10.7	28	Watch
	1.1	10	34
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.11 ↓ (1.39)	10.04 ↑ (4.8)	24.95 ↑ (7.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Manchester United
86.5%

Draw
9.6%

Barnsley
3.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.1%

19.7%

12.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.9%

21.1%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Manchester United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Manchester United's performance.

Barnsley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Barnsley might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Manchester United than the current prediction. (-13.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Manchester United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barnsley than the current prediction. (+7.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Barnsley could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	10%	0%

Manchester United - Barnsley Predictions

Users Predictions: Manchester United will win (18 of 19 users predict this - 94.74%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.7% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bayindir A. (G) 20. Dalot D. 5. Maguire H. 35. Evans J. 43. Collyer T. 18. Casemiro (C) 25. Ugarte M. 21. Antony 14. Eriksen C. 17. Garnacho A. 10. Rashford M.	1. Slonina G. (G) 6. de Gevigney M. 4. Roberts M. 32. Earl J. 2. Cotter B. 8. Phillips A. 45. Yoganathan V. 7. O'Keeffe C. 48. Connell L. (C) 36. Watters M. 11. Jalo F.
Substitutes
4. de Ligt M. 16. Diallo A. 8. Fernandes B. 22. Heaton T. (G) 37. Mainoo K. 6. Martinez Li. 3. Mazraoui N. 36. Wheatley E. 11. Zirkzee J.	10. Benson J. 9. Cosgrove S. 18. Craig M. 44. Humphrys S. 23. Killip B. (G) 15. Lofthouse K. 19. Marsh A. 21. McCarthy C. 3. Russell J.
Coaches
ten Hag E.	Clarke D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Rashford M. ⚽, Garnacho A. (A),
34', Slonina G. 🟨,
35', 2 - 0, Antony (Pen),
45+2', 3 - 0, Garnacho A. ⚽, Rashford M. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Roberts M. ↓, McCarthy C. ↑,
46', Yoganathan V. ↓, Craig M. ↑,
46', Jalo F. ↓, Humphrys S. ↑,
49', 4 - 0, Garnacho A. ⚽, Eriksen C. (A),
56', Watters M. ↓, Cosgrove S. ↑,
58', 5 - 0, Rashford M. ⚽, Garnacho A. (A),
62', Ugarte M. ↓, Fernandes B. ↑,
63', Dalot D. ↓, Mazraoui N. ↑,
63', Rashford M. ↓, Zirkzee J. ↑,
63', Cotter B. ↓, Lofthouse K. ↑,
72', Humphrys S. 🟨,
78', Evans J. ↓, de Ligt M. ↑,
81', 6 - 0, Eriksen C. ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
84', Garnacho A. ↓, Diallo A. ↑,
85', 7 - 0, Eriksen C. ⚽, Fernandes B. (A),
90+3', O'Keeffe C. 🟨,

Preview

Recent matches Man Utd is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Barnsley is in a first-class shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Barnsley could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Man Utd is indisputable favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Manchester United
English Premier League
14.09.24	Southampton - Manchester United	0:3 ✺
01.09.24	Manchester United - Liverpool	0:3 ✺
24.08.24	Brighton & Hove Albion - Manchester United	2:1 ✺
16.08.24	Manchester United - Fulham	1:0 ✺
English FA Community Shield
10.08.24	Manchester City - Manchester United	2:1 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WLLWL
- Barnsley FC
English League One
14.09.24	Stevenage Borough - Barnsley	3:0 ✺
07.09.24	Barnsley - Bristol Rovers	2:1 ✺
31.08.24	Crawley Town - Barnsley	0:3 ✺
English League Cup
27.08.24	Barnsley - Sheffield United	1:0 ✺
English League One
24.08.24	Barnsley - Northampton Town	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 LWWWT

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