Match Info

ENGLAND: League Two - Round 45

Date: 20 April 2024, Saturday

Location: One Call Stadium (Mansfield)

Referee: Purkiss S. (Eng)


	Mansfield Town		Gillingham

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	4.2
	1.9	3.5	3.8
	1.95	3.6	3.75
	1.95	3.59	4.02
	1.9	3.59	4.03
	1.91	3.6	3.7
	1.83	3.56	4.15	Watch
	1.84	3.5	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.6)	3.57 ↓ (3.85)	3.94 ↓ (5.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mansfield Town
49.7%

Draw
26.4%

Gillingham
23.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

24.2%

17.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24.4%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mansfield Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mansfield Town's form might have worsened.

Gillingham has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Gillingham's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mansfield Town than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mansfield Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gillingham than the current prediction. (-6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Gillingham, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	16.7%	33.3%

Mansfield Town - Gillingham Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Mansfield will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Gillingham will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Mansfield: 21.7% – 78.3%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Pym C. (G) 7. Akins L. 14. Flint A. (C) 9. Bowery J. 3. McLaughlin S. 44. Boateng H. 25. Reed L. 15. Lewis A. 10. Maris G. 12. Gale J. 20. Nichols T.	25. Turner J. (G) 24. Hutton R. 5. Ehmer M. (C) 4. Masterson C. 3. Clark M. 38. Dieng T. 18. Coleman E. 23. Mahoney C. 11. Jefferies D. 8. Williams J. 9. Andrews J.
Substitutes
8. Clarke O. 19. Cooper G. 13. Flinders S. (G) 4. Hewitt E. 40. Keillor-Dunn D. 11. MacDonald C. 16. Quinn S.	17. Clarke J. 12. Hawkins O. 13. Malone S. 14. McKenzie R. 1. Morris G. (G) 22. Ogie S. 47. Walker J.
Coaches
Clough N.	Clemence S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', 0 - 1, Dieng T. ⚽,
30', Boateng H. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
56', Boateng H. ↓, Clarke O. ↑,
56', Maris G. ↓, Quinn S. ↑,
56', Lewis A. ↓, Keillor-Dunn D. ↑,
59', Williams J. ↓, McKenzie R. ↑,
64', Jefferies D. 🟨,
70', Mahoney C. ↓, Ogie S. ↑,
70', Jefferies D. ↓, Walker J. ↑,
76', Clark M. ↓, Malone S. ↑,
76', Andrews J. ↓, Hawkins O. ↑,
77', 1 - 1, Keillor-Dunn D. ⚽, Nichols T. (A),
80', 2 - 1, McLaughlin S. ⚽, Quinn S. (A),
85', Gale J. ↓, MacDonald C. ↑,
86', Ehmer M. 🟨,
90+2', McLaughlin S. ↓, Cooper G. ↑,

Preview

Mansfield is Qualified for League One

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Mansfield could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Mansfield will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Mansfield won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Mansfield won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mansfield Town
English League Two
16.04.24	Mansfield Town - Accrington Stanley	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	Milton Keynes Dons - Mansfield Town	1:4 ✺
09.04.24	Mansfield Town - Forest Green Rovers	1:0 ✺
06.04.24	Mansfield Town - Crawley Town	1:4 ✺
29.03.24	Wrexham - Mansfield Town	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWWLL
- Gillingham FC
English League Two
13.04.24	Gillingham - Barrow	3:0 ✺
06.04.24	Bradford City - Gillingham	1:0 ✺
01.04.24	Harrogate Town - Gillingham	5:1 ✺
29.03.24	Gillingham - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
23.03.24	Morecambe - Gillingham	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
30.09.23	Gillingham - Mansfield Town	1:1
11.02.23	Mansfield Town - Gillingham	2:0
17.09.22	Gillingham - Mansfield Town	0:2

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