Match Info

Ligue 2 - Round 32

Date: 26 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Nouste Camp (Pau)

Referee: Lesage M. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA French 2, TOD
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free


	Pau		Metz

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.5	1.57	Watch
	4.6	3.75	1.7
	4.6	4.3	1.61
	5.14	4.55	1.59
	4.89	4.46	1.57	Watch
	4.8	3.8	1.67
	4.95	4.45	1.6	Watch
	4.6	4.3	1.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.79 ↑ (3.85)	4.26 ↑ (3.45)	1.62 ↓ (1.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pau
19.6%

Draw
22.1%

Metz
58.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.8%

25.5%

51.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.2%

24.9%

53%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Metz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Metz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pau than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Metz than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Metz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Pau - Metz Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Pau will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Metz will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Metz: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Metz (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Metz (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kamara B. (C) 12. Gaspar J. 4. Kouassi L.X. 25. Ruiz J. 23. Obiang J. 2. Koudou T. 6. Ngom O. 21. Beusnard S. 9. Mboup P. 17. Mille A. 10. Boutaib K.	29. Bodart A. (G) 39. Kouao K. 8. Traore I. 4. Mboula U. 3. Udol M. (C) 36. Jallow A. 21. Stambouli B. 12. Toure A. 7. Hein G. 14. Sabaly C. 18. Gueye I.
Substitutes
7. Arconte T. 27. Bangre M. 11. Chahiri M. 18. Diawara K. 55. Jeannin M. (G) 3. Kalulu J. 8. Lopy J.	19. Bokele Mputu M. 10. Diallo P. A. 15. Lo A. 6. Nduquidi J. 16. Oukidja A. (G) 9. Sane I. 22. Van Den Kerkhof K.
Coaches
Usai N.	Le Mignan S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
51', Toure A. 🟨,
53', Traore I. 🟨,
55', Mboup P. (Pen),
70', Jallow A. ↓, Sane I. ↑,
70', Mboula U. ↓, Lo A. ↑,
70', Stambouli B. ↓, Diallo P. A. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Mboup P. ⚽, Boutaib K. (A),
73', Boutaib K. ↓, Arconte T. ↑,
74', Gaspar J. ↓, Bangre M. ↑,
74', Mboup P. ↓, Diawara K. ↑,
78', Gueye I. ↓, Bokele Mputu M. ↑,
78', Kouao K. ↓, Van Den Kerkhof K. ↑,
78', Ngom O. ↓, Lopy J. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Diallo P. A. ⚽, Udol M. (A),
81', Lo A. 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Arconte T. (Pen),
85', Beusnard S. ↓, Chahiri M. ↑,
85', Mille A. 🟨,
87', Van Den Kerkhof K. 🟨,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Recent matches Pau is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Metz is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Metz could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Metz is a favorite.

There will not play in Pau: Bobichon A. (Ankle Injury) Kante (Yellow Cards) Lopy J. (Inactive) Meddah D. (Inactive)

There will not play in Metz: Asoro J. (Injury) Stambouli B. (Inactive) Sy P. (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Pau won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1:2 (average 0.3:0.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Pau won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pau FC
French Ligue 2
18.04.25	Ajaccio - Pau	1:1 ✺
11.04.25	Pau - Clermont	2:2 ✺
05.04.25	Lorient - Pau	5:0 ✺
28.03.25	Pau - Annecy	1:0 ✺
14.03.25	Martigues - Pau	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TTLWT
- FC Metz
French Ligue 2
19.04.25	Metz - Red Star	2:2 ✺
11.04.25	Martigues - Metz	1:4 ✺
05.04.25	Caen - Metz	2:2 ✺
28.03.25	Metz - Troyes	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Dunkerque - Metz	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 2
04.01.25	Metz - Pau	0:0
08.04.23	Pau - Metz	1:1
01.10.22	Metz - Pau	1:0

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