Match Info

Championship - Round 42

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Denmark	16:00	Viaplay
Norway	16:00	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Sweden	16:00	Viaplay


	Middlesbrough		Portsmouth

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.33	7	Watch
	1.47	4.44	6.87	Watch
	1.47	4.53	7.31
	1.45	4.57	6.9	Watch
	1.44	4	6.5
	1.51	4.47	6.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↓ (1.6)	4.39 ↑ (4)	6.91 ↑ (5.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
64.8%

Draw
21.5%

Portsmouth
13.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

58.4%

23.4%

18.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

17.7%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Middlesbrough's performance.

Portsmouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-20.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Middlesbrough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Portsmouth than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Portsmouth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	15.4%	7.7%

Middlesbrough - Portsmouth Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Portsmouth will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Middlesbrough: 54% – 99.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 6. Fry D. (C) 29. Malanda A. 3. Targett M. 16. Browne A. 18. Morris A. 8. McGree R. 45. Sarmiento J. 9. Conway T. 13. Strelec D.	1. Schmid N. (G) 24. Devlin T. 5. Poole R. 55. Dia M. 2. Williams J. 7. Pack M. (C) 21. Dozzell A. 47. Caballero G. 36. Chaplin C. 37. Anderson K. 9. Bishop C.
Substitutes
12. Ayling L. 25. Edmundson G. 14. Gilbert A. 27. Hansen S. 44. Ibeh C. 15. Munroe F. 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)	27. Alli M. 29. Blair H. 17. Bowat I. 26. Bursik J. (G) 16. Le Roux L. 10. Segecic A. 6. Shaughnessy C. 8. Swift J. 20. Waddingham T.
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Mousinho J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Williams J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Targett M. ↓, Ayling L. ↑,
46', Sarmiento J. ↓, Hansen S. ↑,
63', Strelec D. ↓, Sene M. K. ↑,
65', Caballero G. ↓, Segecic A. ↑,
72', Anderson K. 🟨,
75', Anderson K. ↓, Alli M. ↑,
76', Williams J. ↓, Bowat I. ↑,
84', McGree R. ↓, Gilbert A. ↑,
85', Dia M. ↓, Shaughnessy C. ↑,
89', Bishop C. 🟨,
90+2', Conway T. ↓, Ibeh C. ↑,
90+3', Fry D. 🟨,
90+7', 0 - 1, Chaplin C. ⚽, Segecic A. (A),
90+9', Pack M. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 21).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, Middlesbrough is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Castledine L. (Inactive) Hackney H. (Calf Injury) Jones A. (Ankle Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silvera S. (Foot Injury) Whittaker M. (Inactive)

There will not play in Portsmouth: Adams E. (Inactive) Alese A. (Muscle Injury) Bianchini F. (Knee Injury) Knight J. (Back Injury) Kosznovszky M. (Knee Injury) Murphy J. (Foot Injury) Ogilvie C. (Red Card) Umeh F. (Hamstring Injury) Waddingham T. (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Injury) Targett M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Portsmouth: Swanson Z. (Inactive)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.5:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Middlesbrough won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	27:17	10	25
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	16:15	1	18

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.26% Portsmouth: 1.55%

Last Results with these Odds

Middlesbrough - the odds 1.6 are the expected chance of winning is 58.39%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
06.04.26	Swansea City - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Middlesbrough - Millwall	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Blackburn Rovers - Middlesbrough	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
11.03.26	Middlesbrough - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TLTTL
- Portsmouth FC
English League Championship
06.04.26	Portsmouth - Oxford United	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Norwich City - Portsmouth	1:1 ✺
21.03.26	Queens Park Rangers - Portsmouth	6:1 ✺
16.03.26	Portsmouth - Derby County	0:1 ✺
10.03.26	Portsmouth - Swansea City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 TTLLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.10.25	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	1:0
18.01.25	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	2:1
24.08.24	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	2:2
03.03.12	Portsmouth - Middlesbrough	1:3

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