Match Info

Championship - Round 38

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Martin S. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Iceland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	CBS Sports Golazo, CBS Sports Network, Paramount+


	Middlesbrough		Bristol City

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.75	6.25	Watch
	1.44	4.69	6.9
	1.44	5.02	7.01
	1.41	5.04	6.8	Watch
	1.4	4.6	6
	1.43	4.7	6.44	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.64)	4.8 ↑ (4.14)	6.57 ↑ (4.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
66.1%

Draw
19.6%

Bristol City
14.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.8%

22.9%

19.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.3%

22%

18.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Middlesbrough's performance.

Bristol City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Middlesbrough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.2%	10.5%	5.3%

Middlesbrough - Bristol City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Middlesbrough (1.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (16 of 19 users predict this - 84.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 67.81% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 12. Ayling L. 29. Malanda A. 3. Targett M. 18. Morris A. 7. Hackney H. (C) 16. Browne A. 8. McGree R. 45. Sarmiento J. 9. Conway T.	23. Vitek R. (G) 17. Sykes M. 38. Eile N. 12. Knight J. (C) 3. Pring C. 2. McCrorie R. 4. Randell A. 40. Morsy S. 10. Twine S. 30. Armstrong S. 18. Riis E.
Substitutes
23. Castledine L. 25. Edmundson G. 14. Gilbert A. 27. Hansen S. 15. Munroe F. 20. Sene M. K. 13. Strelec D. 11. Whittaker M. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)	20. Bell S. 6. Bird M. 35. Derrick L. 44. Earthy G. 42. Ezendu D. 14. Horvat T. 13. Lumley J. (G) 24. Naylor S. 46. Thelwell M.
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Struber G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
35', Eile N. 🟨,
43', Pring C. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', Twine S. 🟨,
53', Morsy S. 🟨,
58', Armstrong S. 🟨,
59', McGree R. ↓, Strelec D. ↑,
59', Sarmiento J. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Castledine L. ⚽,
67', Armstrong S. ↓, Bell S. ↑,
72', Hackney H. ↓, Gilbert A. ↑,
78', Twine S. ↓, Bird M. ↑,
82', Morsy S. ↓, Horvat T. ↑,
88', Conway T. 🟨,
90', Conway T. ↓, Edmundson G. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 1, Randell A. ⚽, Horvat T. (A),

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 0.

Recent performances by Middlesbrough have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bristol City has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Middlesbrough may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Middlesbrough is the undisputed favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Bangura A. (Injury) Jones A. (Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Silvera S. (Injury)

There will not play in Bristol City: Atkinson R. (Ankle Injury) Dickie R. (Hamstring Injury) McNally L. (Knee Injury) Williams J. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: Fry D. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 13 matches, and goals 20:33. (average 1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:15. (average 0.9:1.7).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.08% Bristol City: 2.86%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17:12	5	18
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	12:13	-1	14

Last Results with these Odds

Middlesbrough - the odds 1.64 are the expected chance of winning is 57.82%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
11.03.26	Middlesbrough - Charlton Athletic	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Queens Park Rangers - Middlesbrough	0:4 ✺
02.03.26	Birmingham City - Middlesbrough	1:3 ✺
24.02.26	Middlesbrough - Leicester City	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Middlesbrough - Oxford United	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWTT
- Bristol City
English League Championship
10.03.26	Leicester City - Bristol City	2:0 ✺
07.03.26	Bristol City - Coventry City	0:2 ✺
English FA Cup
03.03.26	Port Vale - Bristol City	1:0 ET ✺
English League Championship
27.02.26	Bristol City - Watford	1:2 ✺
24.02.26	Blackburn Rovers - Bristol City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
20.12.25	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:0
21.02.25	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:1
19.10.24	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	0:2
10.02.24	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	1:2
25.11.23	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	3:2
10.04.23	Bristol City - Middlesbrough	2:2
05.11.22	Middlesbrough - Bristol City	1:1

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