Match Info

Championship - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Hallam F. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Middlesbrough		Southampton

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.3	3.3	3.1
	2.28	3.36	3.16	Watch
	2.29	3.42	3.32
	2.28	3.44	3.1	Watch
	2.2	3.2	3.2
	2.32	3.38	3.32	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.26)	3.34 ↑ (3.29)	3.2 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
41.9%

Draw
28.4%

Southampton
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

28.7%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

28.2%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
23.8%	14.3%	61.9%

Middlesbrough - Southampton Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Middlesbrough will win (votes: 5 - 23.8%). S`hampton will win (votes: 13 - 61.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 41.1% – 82.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - S`hampton (2.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - S`hampton (1.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brynn S. (G) 12. Ayling L. 6. Fry D. (C) 29. Malanda A. 2. Brittain C. 18. Morris A. 8. McGree R. 3. Targett M. 11. Whittaker M. 9. Conway T. 13. Strelec D.	41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. (C) 15. Wood N. 3. Manning R. 20. Jander C. 4. Downes F. 18. Fellows T. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 9. Larin C.
Substitutes
16. Browne A. 23. Castledine L. 14. Gilbert A. 27. Hansen S. 46. Hunt H. 44. Ibeh C. 45. Sarmiento J. 22. Silvera S. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)	19. Archer C. 48. Bragg C. 24. Charles S. 23. Edozie S. 25. Long G. (G) 27. Matsuki K. 17. Quarshie J. 11. Stewart R. 34. Welington
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Eckert T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
55', Larin C. 🟨,
59', Downes F. 🟨,
60', Larin C. ↓, Stewart R. ↑,
68', McGree R. ↓, Browne A. ↑,
69', Fellows T. ↓, Matsuki K. ↑,
69', Downes F. ↓, Charles S. ↑,
79', Whittaker M. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
79', Strelec D. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
86', Scienza L. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

S`hampton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Middlesbrough is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Hackney H. (Calf Injury) Jones A. (Ankle Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in S`hampton: McCarthy A. (Wrist Injury) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Stephens J. (Inactive)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Matsuki K. (Injury)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.6:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 13.45% Southampton: 10.61%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Middlesbrough	8	4	3	1	16:12	4	15
13	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
02.05.26	Wrexham - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
25.04.26	Middlesbrough - Watford	5:1 ✺
22.04.26	Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWWTL
- Southampton FC
English League Championship
02.05.26	Preston North End - Southampton	1:3 ✺
28.04.26	Southampton - Ipswich Town	2:2 ✺
English FA Cup
25.04.26	Manchester City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
21.04.26	Southampton - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Swansea City - Southampton	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
04.01.26	Middlesbrough - Southampton	4:0
27.09.25	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1
29.03.24	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:1
23.09.23	Middlesbrough - Southampton	2:1
English Premier League
13.05.17	Middlesbrough - Southampton	1:2
11.12.16	Southampton - Middlesbrough	1:0
English League Championship
21.04.12	Middlesbrough - Southampton	2:1

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