Match Info

Championship - Round 40

Date: 28 April 2026, Tuesday

Location: St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton)

Referee: Kirk T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Southampton		Ipswich Town

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3	Watch
	2.23	3.46	3.17
	2.25	3.57	3.27
	2.19	3.58	3.16	Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.1
	2.27	3.54	3.25	Watch
	2.17	3.5	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↓ (2.2)	3.46 ↓ (3.5)	3.15 ↑ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southampton
43%

Draw
27.1%

Ipswich Town
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.2%

26.5%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.7%

25%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southampton has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

Ipswich Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southampton than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ipswich Town than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.4%	30.8%	12.8%

Southampton - Ipswich Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 35 users predict this event. S`hampton will win (votes: 19 - 54.3%). Ipswich will win (votes: 5 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 31.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for S`hampton: 37.8% – 70.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - S`hampton (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - S`hampton (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. S`hampton (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Peretz D. (G) 14. Bree J. 6. Harwood-Bellis T. (C) 15. Wood N. 3. Manning R. 24. Charles S. 20. Jander C. 18. Fellows T. 10. Azaz F. 13. Scienza L. 9. Larin C.	28. Walton C. (G) 19. Furlong D. 26. O'Shea D. (C) 24. Greaves J. 3. Davis L. 5. Matusiwa A. 6. Neil D. 7. Burns W. 32. Nunez M. 11. Philogene J. 31. Azon I.
Substitutes
19. Archer C. 48. Bragg C. 23. Edozie S. 38. Jelert E. 25. Long G. (G) 17. Quarshie J. 28. Romeu O. 11. Stewart R. 34. Welington	29. Akpom Ch. 12. Cajuste J. 47. Clarke J. 9. Hirst G. 18. Johnson B. 4. Kipre C. 20. McAteer K. 33. Mehmeti A. 1. Palmer A. (G)
Coaches
Eckert T.	McKenna K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 2)
48', 0 - 1, Burns W. ⚽, Azon I. (A),
57', Greaves J. 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Manning R. ⚽,
67', Philogene J. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
67', Burns W. ↓, McAteer K. ↑,
69', Fellows T. ↓, Edozie S. ↑,
75', Azon I. 🟨,
75', Azon I. ↓, Hirst G. ↑,
75', Nunez M. ↓, Cajuste J. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Larin C. ⚽, Manning R. (A),
81', Larin C. ↓, Stewart R. ↑,
82', Matusiwa A. ↓, Akpom Ch. ↑,
87', 2 - 2, Clarke J. ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League).

S`hampton is Qualified for Championship (Play Offs Semi~finals)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 1.

S`hampton is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ipswich has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Ipswich has had a series of away games.

S`hampton is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in S`hampton: Downes F. (Suspended) McCarthy A. (Wrist Injury) Roerslev Rasmussen M. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Ipswich: Button D. (Calf Injury) Townsend C. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in S`hampton: Stephens J. (Inactive) Welington (Injury)

There are questionable in Ipswich: Davis L. (Inactive) Young A. (Hip Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, S`hampton won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:8. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, S`hampton won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.5:0.8).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Southampton: 6.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Southampton	8	4	2	2	19:10	9	10

Last Results with these Odds

Southampton - the odds 2.2 are the expected chance of winning is 42.21%, but this team recently wins 55% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southampton FC
English FA Cup
25.04.26	Manchester City - Southampton	2:1 ✺
English League Championship
21.04.26	Southampton - Bristol City	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Swansea City - Southampton	1:2 ✺
14.04.26	Southampton - Blackburn Rovers	3:0 ✺
11.04.26	Southampton - Derby County	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LTWWW
- Ipswich Town
English League Championship
25.04.26	West Bromwich Albion - Ipswich Town	0:0 ✺
22.04.26	Charlton Athletic - Ipswich Town	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
14.04.26	Portsmouth - Ipswich Town	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Norwich City - Ipswich Town	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 TWTLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
17.08.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:1
English Premier League
01.02.25	Ipswich Town - Southampton	1:2
21.09.24	Southampton - Ipswich Town	1:1
English League Championship
01.04.24	Ipswich Town - Southampton	3:2
19.09.23	Southampton - Ipswich Town	0:1
English FA Cup
14.01.15	Ipswich Town - Southampton	0:1
04.01.15	Southampton - Ipswich Town	1:1

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