Match Info

Championship - Round 46

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Racecourse Ground (Wrexham)

Referee: Langford O. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Wrexham		Middlesbrough

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.75	2.35	Watch
	2.55	3.7	2.5
	2.66	3.69	2.47	Watch
	2.67	3.78	2.47
	2.62	3.8	2.43	Watch
	2.6	3.4	2.45
	2.62	3.58	2.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.61 ↑ (2.58)	3.67 ↑ (3.54)	2.44 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wrexham
36%

Draw
25.6%

Middlesbrough
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

26.4%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.1%

25.5%

38.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wrexham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wrexham than the current prediction. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52%	12%	36%

Wrexham - Middlesbrough Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Wrexham will win (votes: 13 - 52%). Middlesbrough will win (votes: 9 - 36%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 12%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Wrexham: 32.4% – 71.6%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Ward D. (G) 5. Hyam D. (C) 24. Scarr D. 2. Doyle C. 12. Kabore I. 15. Dobson G. 37. James M. 20. Rathbone O. 14. Thomason G. 10. Windass J. 28. Smith S.	31. Brynn S. (G) 12. Ayling L. 6. Fry D. (C) 29. Malanda A. 2. Brittain C. 16. Browne A. 18. Morris A. 3. Targett M. 11. Whittaker M. 9. Conway T. 13. Strelec D.
Substitutes
33. Broadhead N. 13. Cacace L. 4. Cleworth M. 7. Keillor-Dunn D. 47. Longman R. 19. Moore K. 27. O'Brien L. 1. Okonkwo A. (G) 18. Sheaf B.	23. Castledine L. 25. Edmundson G. 14. Gilbert A. 27. Hansen S. 8. McGree R. 45. Sarmiento J. 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)
Coaches
Parkinson P.	Hellberg K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Conway T. ⚽,
28', 1 - 1, Windass J. ⚽,
41', 2 - 1, Smith S. ⚽, Kabore I. (A),
44', 2 - 2, Strelec D. ⚽, Targett M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Browne A. ↓, McGree R. ↑,
62', Dobson G. ↓, Sheaf B. ↑,
63', Rathbone O. ↓, Broadhead N. ↑,
71', Whittaker M. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
71', Strelec D. ↓, Sarmiento J. ↑,
73', Scarr D. ↓, Moore K. ↑,
74', Kabore I. ↓, Longman R. ↑,
83', James M. ↓, Keillor-Dunn D. ↑,
87', Ayling L. ↓, Sene M. K. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Wrexham: James A. (Knee Injury) O'Connor T. (Hamstring Injury) Sheaf B. (Knee Injury) Vyner Z. (Inactive)

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Hackney H. (Calf Injury) Jones A. (Ankle Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: McGree R. (Injury) Sarmiento J. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Wrexham won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.08% Wrexham: 4.26%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17:12	5	18
14	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	10:13	-3	11

Last Results with these Odds

Middlesbrough - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 37.3%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wrexham AFC
English League Championship
26.04.26	Coventry City - Wrexham	3:1 ✺
21.04.26	Oxford United - Wrexham	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Wrexham - Stoke City	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Birmingham City - Wrexham	2:0 ✺
07.04.26	Wrexham - Southampton	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWWLL
- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
25.04.26	Middlesbrough - Watford	5:1 ✺
22.04.26	Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Swansea City - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
25.10.25	Middlesbrough - Wrexham	1:1

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