Match Info

Championship - Round 45

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Riverside Stadium (Middlesbrough)

Referee: Herczeg A. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Sweden	Viaplay
United-kingdom	Sky Sports+
Usa	Paramount+


	Middlesbrough		Watford

	1	X	2
	1.33	5	7.5	Watch
	1.39	4.92	7.82
	1.39	5.37	7.95
	1.38	5.01	7.81	Watch
	1.36	4.8	7
	1.36	4.95	7.65	Watch
	1.53	4.4	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.53)	4.92 ↑ (4.4)	7.33 ↑ (5.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Middlesbrough
67.9%

Draw
19.2%

Watford
12.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

21.5%

16.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

15.7%

23.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Middlesbrough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Middlesbrough's performance.

Watford has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Middlesbrough than the current prediction. (-22.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Middlesbrough that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Watford than the current prediction. (+10.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Watford could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
91.7%	0%	8.3%

Middlesbrough - Watford Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Middlesbrough (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Middlesbrough will win (11 of 12 users predict this - 91.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 76.03% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Middlesbrough (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Brynn S. (G) 2. Brittain C. 12. Ayling L. (C) 29. Malanda A. 24. Bangura A. 14. Gilbert A. 18. Morris A. 11. Whittaker M. 45. Sarmiento J. 27. Hansen S. 13. Strelec D.	1. Selvik E. (G) 25. Abankwah J. 6. Pollock M. 4. Keben K. 2. Ngakia J. 23. Mendy N. 10. Louza I. (C) 39. Kayembe E. 16. Bola M. 9. Kjerrumgaard L. 15. Bove E.
Substitutes
16. Browne A. 23. Castledine L. 9. Conway T. 25. Edmundson G. 6. Fry D. 20. Sene M. K. 22. Silvera S. 3. Targett M. 32. Wildsmith J. (G)	34. Baah K. 12. Baxter N. (G) 8. Chakvetadze G. 20. Doumbia M. 3. Goglichidze S. 43. Grieves J. 7. Ince T. 66. Irankunda N. 42. Maamma O.
Coaches
Hellberg K.	Still E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Whittaker M. ⚽,
45+1', 2 - 0, Strelec D. ⚽, Whittaker M. (A),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Bangura A. ↓, Targett M. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Abankwah J. ⚽, Keben K. (A),
58', 3 - 1, Whittaker M. ⚽,
62', Ngakia J. ↓, Maamma O. ↑,
62', Bove E. ↓, Doumbia M. ↑,
63', Kjerrumgaard L. ↓, Irankunda N. ↑,
63', Mendy N. ↓, Grieves J. ↑,
63', Whittaker M. ↓, Conway T. ↑,
63', Malanda A. ↓, Fry D. ↑,
64', Hansen S. ↓, Castledine L. ↑,
74', Abankwah J. 🟨,
75', 4 - 1, Conway T. (Penalty Awarded),
82', Bola M. ↓, Ince T. ↑,
83', Sarmiento J. ↓, Silvera S. ↑,
85', Louza I. 🟨,
85', Morris A. 🟨,
90+2', 5 - 1, Conway T. ⚽, Strelec D. (A),

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Championship (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 2.

Middlesbrough has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Watford has been on a rough run of results (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Watford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Middlesbrough is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Middlesbrough: Hackney H. (Calf Injury) Jones A. (Ankle Injury) Lenihan D. (Achilles Tendon Injury)

There will not play in Watford: Grieves J. (Inactive) Kyprianou H. (Ankle Injury) Vata R. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Middlesbrough: McGree R. (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Middlesbrough won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:23. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Middlesbrough won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.3:1.1).

Outrights of English League Championship for now

Middlesbrough: 12.08% Watford: 0.75%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	17:12	5	18
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	7:14	-7	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Middlesbrough FC
English League Championship
22.04.26	Middlesbrough - Sheffield Wednesday	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Ipswich Town - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
11.04.26	Middlesbrough - Portsmouth	0:1 ✺
06.04.26	Swansea City - Middlesbrough	2:2 ✺
03.04.26	Middlesbrough - Millwall	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTLTL
- Watford FC
English League Championship
21.04.26	West Bromwich Albion - Watford	3:0 ✺
18.04.26	Watford - Sheffield United	0:2 ✺
11.04.26	Oxford United - Watford	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Watford - Charlton Athletic	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Queens Park Rangers - Watford	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English League Championship
01.11.25	Watford - Middlesbrough	3:0
15.02.25	Middlesbrough - Watford	0:1
05.10.24	Watford - Middlesbrough	2:1
04.05.24	Middlesbrough - Watford	3:1
30.09.23	Watford - Middlesbrough	2:3
28.01.23	Middlesbrough - Watford	2:0
30.08.22	Watford - Middlesbrough	2:1

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